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Alaves vs Atletico Madrid Prediction, H2H, Stats & Betting Tips

Spain · La LigaSat, 10 Oct 2026

Alaves

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Sat, 10 Oct 202615:15

1 : 2

Full time

Atletico Madrid

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Pre-match win probability

21.9%Alaves25.6%Draw52.6%Atletico Madrid

Our prediction

Away or Draw · Alaves

Alaves vs Atletico Madrid listed tip from the board.

Odds1.22
Confidence52.6%
ResultGraded
Pre-match model probabilityPick and odds as published before kick-off
  • Alaves 21.9%
  • Draw 25.6%
  • Atletico Madrid 52.6%

Season statistics

La Liga · highlighted side is stronger

AlavesAtletico Madrid

Betting markets

Bookmaker prices with margin removed

Goal lineOverUnder
0.5 goals22.8% · 1.052.2% · 11
1.5 goals18.7% · 1.286.4% · 3.75
2.5 goals12.5% · 1.9112.5% · 1.91
3.5 goals7% · 3.418% · 1.33

Both teams to score

Yes52%
No48%

Double chance

1X38.5%
X261.5%

Match result

Alaves4.33
Draw3.7
Atletico Madrid1.8

Both teams to score

Yes52% · 1.8
No48% · 1.95

1X

Chance38.5%
Odds1.95

X2

Chance61.5%
Odds1.22

Alaves

Chance21.9%
Odds4.33

Draw

Chance25.6%
Odds3.7

Atletico Madrid

Chance52.6%
Odds1.8

No half-time prices stored.

No corner prices stored.

Model comparison

Our pick: Away or Draw at 1.22

AlavesAtletico Madrid
Recent form50%50%
Attack50%50%
Defence50%50%
Goals model50%50%
Overall29%71%

Alaves vs Atletico Madrid: prediction & preview

Spain · La Liga · Sat, 10 Oct 2026

Alaves meet Atletico Madrid in the Spain, La Liga on 10 October 2026 at 15:15 (Africa/Lagos). The recorded score is 1–2.

On the 1X2 market the shortest price is Atletico Madrid at 1.8. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, that outcome carries about 52.6% of the implied chance, with the other two outcomes sharing the rest. A short price means the market rates that side more likely. It is not a certainty, and the margin means the three raw probabilities add up to more than 100% before they are scaled.

The 2.5-goal line is priced shorter on Over 2.5 (1.91, about 50% after the margin). Both teams to score is shorter on Yes at 1.8.

Season points-per-game rates were not stored on this fixture yet. The odds chart still shows how the 1X2, goals, and both-teams markets are priced.

Alaves vs Atletico Madrid FAQs

4 questions

What time is Alaves vs Atletico Madrid?

Kickoff is 15:15 on 10 October 2026, shown in Africa/Lagos.

Which outcome is shortest on Alaves vs Atletico Madrid?

Atletico Madrid is the shortest 1X2 price at 1.8. The margin-adjusted share is about 52.6%.

What are the over and under 2.5 prices?

Over 2.5 is 1.91 and under 2.5 is 1.91.

Do both teams score on this match?

Both teams to score is priced at 1.8. That is a market price, not a forecast that both sides will score.

Alaves vs Atletico Madrid prediction, H2H and stats