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Alfreton Town vs Merthyr Town Prediction, H2H, Stats & Betting Tips

England · National League - NorthSat, 21 Feb 2026

Alfreton Town

LDWLL

Sat, 21 Feb 202616:00

3 : 2

Full time

Merthyr Town

WDLLL

Pre-match win probability

34.5%Alfreton Town26.4%Draw39%Merthyr Town

Our prediction

Draw · Alfreton Town

Alfreton Town vs Merthyr Town listed tip from the board.

Odds3.4
Confidence39%
ResultGraded
Pre-match model probabilityPick and odds as published before kick-off
  • Alfreton Town 34.5%
  • Draw 26.4%
  • Merthyr Town 39%

Season statistics

National League - North · highlighted side is stronger

Alfreton TownMerthyr Town

Betting markets

Bookmaker prices with margin removed

Goal lineOverUnder
0.5 goals22.7% · 1.032.3% · 10
1.5 goals20% · 1.175.2% · 4.5
2.5 goals14.6% · 1.610.2% · 2.3
3.5 goals9.8% · 2.3815.3% · 1.53

Both teams to score

Yes60.9%
No39.1%

Double chance

1X48.3%
X251.7%

Match result

Alfreton Town2.6
Draw3.4
Merthyr Town2.3

Both teams to score

Yes60.9% · 1.53
No39.1% · 2.38

1X

Chance48.3%
Odds1.5

X2

Chance51.7%
Odds1.4

Alfreton Town

Chance34.5%
Odds2.6

Draw

Chance26.4%
Odds3.4

Merthyr Town

Chance39%
Odds2.3

No half-time prices stored.

No corner prices stored.

Model comparison

Our pick: Draw at 3.4

Alfreton TownMerthyr Town
Recent form50%50%
Attack50%50%
Defence50%50%
Goals model50%50%
Overall47%53%

Alfreton Town vs Merthyr Town: prediction & preview

England · National League - North · Sat, 21 Feb 2026

Alfreton Town meet Merthyr Town in the England, National League - North on 21 February 2026 at 16:00 (Africa/Lagos). The recorded score is 3–2.

On the 1X2 market the shortest price is Merthyr Town at 2.3. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, that outcome carries about 39% of the implied chance, with the other two outcomes sharing the rest. A short price means the market rates that side more likely. It is not a certainty, and the margin means the three raw probabilities add up to more than 100% before they are scaled.

The 2.5-goal line is priced shorter on Over 2.5 (1.6, about 59% after the margin). Both teams to score is shorter on Yes at 1.53.

Season points-per-game rates were not stored on this fixture yet. The odds chart still shows how the 1X2, goals, and both-teams markets are priced.

Alfreton Town vs Merthyr Town FAQs

4 questions

What time is Alfreton Town vs Merthyr Town?

Kickoff is 16:00 on 21 February 2026, shown in Africa/Lagos.

Which outcome is shortest on Alfreton Town vs Merthyr Town?

Merthyr Town is the shortest 1X2 price at 2.3. The margin-adjusted share is about 39%.

What are the over and under 2.5 prices?

Over 2.5 is 1.6 and under 2.5 is 2.3.

Do both teams score on this match?

Both teams to score is priced at 1.53. That is a market price, not a forecast that both sides will score.

Alfreton Town vs Merthyr Town prediction, H2H and stats