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Arouca vs Benfica Prediction, H2H, Stats & Betting Tips

Portugal · Primeira LigaSat, 14 Mar 2026

Arouca

LLWLW

Sat, 14 Mar 202621:30

1 : 2

Full time

Benfica

DWLWL

Pre-match win probability

10.5%Arouca17.1%Draw72.4%Benfica

Our prediction

Draw · Arouca

Arouca vs Benfica listed tip from the board.

Odds5.5
Confidence72.4%
ResultGraded
Pre-match model probabilityPick and odds as published before kick-off
  • Arouca 10.5%
  • Draw 17.1%
  • Benfica 72.4%

Season statistics

Primeira Liga · highlighted side is stronger

AroucaBenfica

Betting markets

Bookmaker prices with margin removed

Goal lineOverUnder
0.5 goals23.2% · 1.021.4% · 17
1.5 goals20.2% · 1.174.7% · 5
2.5 goals15.1% · 1.5710.1% · 2.35
3.5 goals9.9% · 2.3815.5% · 1.53

Both teams to score

Yes50%
No50%

Double chance

1X24.1%
X275.9%

Match result

Arouca9
Draw5.5
Benfica1.3

Both teams to score

Yes50% · 1.91
No50% · 1.91

1X

Chance24.1%
Odds3.4

X2

Chance75.9%
Odds1.08

Arouca

Chance10.5%
Odds9

Draw

Chance17.1%
Odds5.5

Benfica

Chance72.4%
Odds1.3

No half-time prices stored.

No corner prices stored.

Model comparison

Our pick: Draw at 5.5

AroucaBenfica
Recent form50%50%
Attack50%50%
Defence50%50%
Goals model50%50%
Overall13%87%

Arouca vs Benfica: prediction & preview

Portugal · Primeira Liga · Sat, 14 Mar 2026

Arouca meet Benfica in the Portugal, Primeira Liga on 14 March 2026 at 21:30 (Africa/Lagos). The recorded score is 1–2.

On the 1X2 market the shortest price is Benfica at 1.3. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, that outcome carries about 72.4% of the implied chance, with the other two outcomes sharing the rest. A short price means the market rates that side more likely. It is not a certainty, and the margin means the three raw probabilities add up to more than 100% before they are scaled.

The 2.5-goal line is priced shorter on Over 2.5 (1.57, about 59.9% after the margin). Both teams to score is shorter on Yes at 1.91.

Season points-per-game rates were not stored on this fixture yet. The odds chart still shows how the 1X2, goals, and both-teams markets are priced.

Arouca vs Benfica FAQs

4 questions

What time is Arouca vs Benfica?

Kickoff is 21:30 on 14 March 2026, shown in Africa/Lagos.

Which outcome is shortest on Arouca vs Benfica?

Benfica is the shortest 1X2 price at 1.3. The margin-adjusted share is about 72.4%.

What are the over and under 2.5 prices?

Over 2.5 is 1.57 and under 2.5 is 2.35.

Do both teams score on this match?

Both teams to score is priced at 1.91. That is a market price, not a forecast that both sides will score.

Arouca vs Benfica prediction, H2H and stats