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Arouca vs Estrela Prediction, H2H, Stats & Betting Tips

Portugal · Primeira LigaSun, 19 Apr 2026

Arouca

LDWWW

Sun, 19 Apr 202615:30

1 : 0

Full time

Estrela

DLLWL

Pre-match win probability

43.7%Arouca31.3%Draw25%Estrela

Our prediction

Home or Draw · Arouca

Arouca vs Estrela listed tip from the board.

Odds1.25
Confidence43.7%
ResultGraded
Pre-match model probabilityPick and odds as published before kick-off
  • Arouca 43.7%
  • Draw 31.3%
  • Estrela 25%

Season statistics

Primeira Liga · 10 matches each · highlighted side is stronger

AroucaEstrela
Goals scored (avg)
1.61.6
Goals conceded (avg)Lower is better
11.8

Recent form

Last matches · newest first

Arouca6W 2D 2L in last 10
  • 24 OctAlverca0 – 1AroucaW
  • 18 OctCF Os Belenenses3 – 4AroucaW
  • 11 OctArouca1 – 0EstrelaW
  • 19 SeptSporting CP2 – 2AroucaD
  • 13 SeptArouca1 – 2Santa ClaraL
Estrela3W 4D 3L in last 10
  • 24 OctEstrela0 – 2Casa PiaL
  • 17 OctFazendense1 – 2EstrelaW
  • 11 OctArouca1 – 0EstrelaL
  • 20 SeptEstrela0 – 2Academico ViseuL
  • 14 SeptRio Ave3 – 3EstrelaD
H2H
Head to headNo previous meetings found between these sides.

Betting markets

Bookmaker prices with margin removed

Goal lineOverUnder
0.5 goals22.3% · 1.062.4% · 10
1.5 goals18.5% · 1.286.8% · 3.5
2.5 goals11.8% · 213.1% · 1.8
3.5 goals7.3% · 3.2517.8% · 1.33

Both teams to score

Yes54.7%
No45.3%

Double chance

1X57.2%
X242.8%

Match result

Arouca2.15
Draw3
Estrela3.75

Both teams to score

Yes54.7% · 1.7
No45.3% · 2.05

1X

Chance57.2%
Odds1.25

X2

Chance42.8%
Odds1.67

Arouca

Chance43.7%
Odds2.15

Draw

Chance31.3%
Odds3

Estrela

Chance25%
Odds3.75

No half-time prices stored.

No corner prices stored.

Model comparison

Our pick: Home or Draw at 1.25

AroucaEstrela
Recent form61%39%
Attack50%50%
Defence63%37%
Goals model50%50%
Overall64%36%

Trends

Trend · Primeira Liga

Arouca scored 1.6 per game in the last 10.

Trend · Primeira Liga

Arouca conceded 1 per game in the last 10.

Trend · Primeira Liga

Failed to score in 2 of those 10.

Trend · Primeira Liga

Kept a clean sheet in 5 of those 10.

Arouca vs Estrela: prediction & preview

Portugal · Primeira Liga · Sun, 19 Apr 2026

Arouca meet Estrela in the Portugal, Primeira Liga on 19 April 2026 at 15:30 (Africa/Lagos). The recorded score is 1–0.

On the 1X2 market the shortest price is Arouca at 2.15. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, that outcome carries about 43.7% of the implied chance, with the other two outcomes sharing the rest. A short price means the market rates that side more likely. It is not a certainty, and the margin means the three raw probabilities add up to more than 100% before they are scaled.

The 2.5-goal line is priced shorter on Under 2.5 (1.8, about 52.6% after the margin). Both teams to score is shorter on Yes at 1.7.

Season points-per-game rates were not stored on this fixture yet. The odds chart still shows how the 1X2, goals, and both-teams markets are priced.

Arouca vs Estrela FAQs

4 questions

What time is Arouca vs Estrela?

Kickoff is 15:30 on 19 April 2026, shown in Africa/Lagos.

Which outcome is shortest on Arouca vs Estrela?

Arouca is the shortest 1X2 price at 2.15. The margin-adjusted share is about 43.7%.

What are the over and under 2.5 prices?

Over 2.5 is 2 and under 2.5 is 1.8.

Do both teams score on this match?

Both teams to score is priced at 1.7. That is a market price, not a forecast that both sides will score.