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Arouca vs Estrela Prediction, H2H, Stats & Betting Tips

Portugal · Primeira LigaSun, 11 Oct 2026

Arouca

Sun, 11 Oct 202620:30

1 : 0

Full time

Estrela

Pre-match win probability

42.9%Arouca28.6%Draw28.6%Estrela

Our prediction

Arouca

Arouca is the shortest 1X2 price in the stored market.

Odds2.2
Confidence42.9%
ResultGraded
Pre-match model probabilityPick and odds as published before kick-off
  • Arouca 42.9%
  • Draw 28.6%
  • Estrela 28.6%

Season statistics

Primeira Liga · highlighted side is stronger

AroucaEstrela

Betting markets

Bookmaker prices with margin removed

Goal lineOverUnder
0.5 goals22.5% · 1.052.1% · 11
1.5 goals18.9% · 1.256.3% · 3.75
2.5 goals12.8% · 1.8512.1% · 1.95
3.5 goals7.9% · 317.4% · 1.36

Both teams to score

Yes55.7%
No44.3%

Double chance

1X56.2%
X243.8%

Match result

Arouca2.2
Draw3.3
Estrela3.3

Both teams to score

Yes55.7% · 1.67
No44.3% · 2.1

1X

Chance56.2%
Odds1.3

X2

Chance43.8%
Odds1.67

Arouca

Chance42.9%
Odds2.2

Draw

Chance28.6%
Odds3.3

Estrela

Chance28.6%
Odds3.3

No half-time prices stored.

No corner prices stored.

Model comparison

Our pick: Arouca at 2.2

AroucaEstrela
Recent form50%50%
Attack50%50%
Defence50%50%
Goals model50%50%
Overall60%40%

Arouca vs Estrela: prediction & preview

Portugal · Primeira Liga · Sun, 11 Oct 2026

Arouca meet Estrela in the Portugal, Primeira Liga on 11 October 2026 at 20:30 (Africa/Lagos). The recorded score is 1–0.

On the 1X2 market the shortest price is Arouca at 2.2. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, that outcome carries about 42.9% of the implied chance, with the other two outcomes sharing the rest. A short price means the market rates that side more likely. It is not a certainty, and the margin means the three raw probabilities add up to more than 100% before they are scaled.

The 2.5-goal line is priced shorter on Over 2.5 (1.85, about 51.3% after the margin). Both teams to score is shorter on Yes at 1.67.

Season points-per-game rates were not stored on this fixture yet. The odds chart still shows how the 1X2, goals, and both-teams markets are priced.

Arouca vs Estrela FAQs

4 questions

What time is Arouca vs Estrela?

Kickoff is 20:30 on 11 October 2026, shown in Africa/Lagos.

Which outcome is shortest on Arouca vs Estrela?

Arouca is the shortest 1X2 price at 2.2. The margin-adjusted share is about 42.9%.

What are the over and under 2.5 prices?

Over 2.5 is 1.85 and under 2.5 is 1.95.

Do both teams score on this match?

Both teams to score is priced at 1.67. That is a market price, not a forecast that both sides will score.

Arouca vs Estrela prediction, H2H and stats