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Arouca vs Nacional Prediction, H2H, Stats & Betting Tips

Portugal · Primeira LigaSat, 21 Feb 2026

Arouca

8th in table · 42 pts

LDWWW

Sat, 21 Feb 202616:30

3 : 0

Full time

Nacional

14th in table · 34 pts

LLLLW

Pre-match win probability

40%Arouca27.6%Draw32.4%Nacional

Our prediction

Home · Arouca

Arouca vs Nacional listed tip from the board.

Odds2.35
Confidence40%
ResultGraded
Pre-match model probabilityPick and odds as published before kick-off
  • Arouca 40%
  • Draw 27.6%
  • Nacional 32.4%

Season statistics

Primeira Liga · 10 matches each · highlighted side is stronger

AroucaNacional
Goals scored (avg)
1.61
Goals conceded (avg)Lower is better
11.9
Wins
129
Played
3434

Recent form

Last matches · newest first

Arouca6W 2D 2L in last 10
  • 24 OctAlverca0 – 1AroucaW
  • 18 OctCF Os Belenenses3 – 4AroucaW
  • 11 OctArouca1 – 0EstrelaW
  • 19 SeptSporting CP2 – 2AroucaD
  • 13 SeptArouca1 – 2Santa ClaraL
Nacional2W 1D 7L in last 10
  • 25 OctNacional1 – 0SC BragaW
  • 17 OctSanjoanense1 – 0NacionalL
  • 11 OctRio Ave3 – 2NacionalL
  • 19 SeptNacional0 – 4FamalicaoL
  • 12 SeptNacional1 – 3AlvercaL
H2H
Head to headArouca 5W · 3D · Nacional 1W · 2.6 goals a game
  • 20 SeptNacional1 – 2Arouca
  • 1 FebNacional1 – 2Arouca
  • 25 AugArouca1 – 0Nacional
  • 6 MayArouca0 – 1Nacional
  • 22 DecNacional2 – 2Arouca
  • 28 JanNacional1 – 1Arouca

Betting markets

Bookmaker prices with margin removed

Goal lineOverUnder
0.5 goals22.6% · 1.052.2% · 11
1.5 goals18.5% · 1.286.8% · 3.5
2.5 goals12.1% · 1.9512.8% · 1.85
3.5 goals7.3% · 3.2517.8% · 1.33

Both teams to score

Yes54.7%
No45.3%

Double chance

1X52.9%
X247.1%

Match result

Arouca2.35
Draw3.4
Nacional2.9

Both teams to score

Yes54.7% · 1.7
No45.3% · 2.05

1X

Chance52.9%
Odds1.4

X2

Chance47.1%
Odds1.57

Arouca

Chance40%
Odds2.35

Draw

Chance27.6%
Odds3.4

Nacional

Chance32.4%
Odds2.9

No half-time prices stored.

No corner prices stored.

Model comparison

Our pick: Home at 2.35

AroucaNacional
Recent form74%26%
Attack62%38%
Defence65%35%
Goals model62%38%
Head-to-head72%28%
Overall55%45%

Trends

Trend · Primeira Liga

Arouca scored 1.6 per game in the last 10.

Trend · Primeira Liga

Arouca conceded 1 per game in the last 10.

Trend · Primeira Liga

Failed to score in 2 of those 10.

Trend · Primeira Liga

Kept a clean sheet in 5 of those 10.

Arouca vs Nacional: prediction & preview

Portugal · Primeira Liga · Sat, 21 Feb 2026

Arouca meet Nacional in the Portugal, Primeira Liga on 21 February 2026 at 16:30 (Africa/Lagos). The recorded score is 3–0.

On the 1X2 market the shortest price is Arouca at 2.35. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, that outcome carries about 40% of the implied chance, with the other two outcomes sharing the rest. A short price means the market rates that side more likely. It is not a certainty, and the margin means the three raw probabilities add up to more than 100% before they are scaled.

The 2.5-goal line is priced shorter on Under 2.5 (1.85, about 51.3% after the margin). Both teams to score is shorter on Yes at 1.7.

Season points-per-game rates were not stored on this fixture yet. The odds chart still shows how the 1X2, goals, and both-teams markets are priced.

Arouca vs Nacional FAQs

4 questions

What time is Arouca vs Nacional?

Kickoff is 16:30 on 21 February 2026, shown in Africa/Lagos.

Which outcome is shortest on Arouca vs Nacional?

Arouca is the shortest 1X2 price at 2.35. The margin-adjusted share is about 40%.

What are the over and under 2.5 prices?

Over 2.5 is 1.95 and under 2.5 is 1.85.

Do both teams score on this match?

Both teams to score is priced at 1.7. That is a market price, not a forecast that both sides will score.