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Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid Prediction, H2H, Stats & Betting Tips

World · UEFA Champions LeagueTue, 5 May 2026

Arsenal

WDWLD

Tue, 5 May 202620:00

1 : 0

Full time

Atletico Madrid

WDWLD

Pre-match win probability

60.7%Arsenal22%Draw17.3%Atletico Madrid

Our prediction

Home · Arsenal

Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid listed tip from the board.

Odds1.57
Confidence60.7%
ResultGraded
Pre-match model probabilityPick and odds as published before kick-off
  • Arsenal 60.7%
  • Draw 22%
  • Atletico Madrid 17.3%

Season statistics

UEFA Champions League · highlighted side is stronger

ArsenalAtletico Madrid

Betting markets

Bookmaker prices with margin removed

Goal lineOverUnder
0.5 goals22.8% · 1.052.2% · 11
1.5 goals18.7% · 1.286.4% · 3.75
2.5 goals12.5% · 1.9112.5% · 1.91
3.5 goals7.5% · 3.217.6% · 1.36

Both teams to score

Yes48%
No52%

Double chance

1X67.6%
X232.4%

Match result

Arsenal1.57
Draw4.33
Atletico Madrid5.5

Both teams to score

Yes48% · 1.95
No52% · 1.8

1X

Chance67.6%
Odds1.14

X2

Chance32.4%
Odds2.38

Arsenal

Chance60.7%
Odds1.57

Draw

Chance22%
Odds4.33

Atletico Madrid

Chance17.3%
Odds5.5

No half-time prices stored.

No corner prices stored.

Model comparison

Our pick: Home at 1.57

ArsenalAtletico Madrid
Recent form50%50%
Attack50%50%
Defence50%50%
Goals model50%50%
Overall78%22%

Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid: prediction & preview

World · UEFA Champions League · Tue, 5 May 2026

Arsenal meet Atletico Madrid in the World, UEFA Champions League on 5 May 2026 at 20:00 (Africa/Lagos). The recorded score is 1–0.

On the 1X2 market the shortest price is Arsenal at 1.57. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, that outcome carries about 60.7% of the implied chance, with the other two outcomes sharing the rest. A short price means the market rates that side more likely. It is not a certainty, and the margin means the three raw probabilities add up to more than 100% before they are scaled.

The 2.5-goal line is priced shorter on Over 2.5 (1.91, about 50% after the margin). Both teams to score is shorter on No at 1.8.

Season points-per-game rates were not stored on this fixture yet. The odds chart still shows how the 1X2, goals, and both-teams markets are priced.

Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid FAQs

4 questions

What time is Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid?

Kickoff is 20:00 on 5 May 2026, shown in Africa/Lagos.

Which outcome is shortest on Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid?

Arsenal is the shortest 1X2 price at 1.57. The margin-adjusted share is about 60.7%.

What are the over and under 2.5 prices?

Over 2.5 is 1.91 and under 2.5 is 1.91.

Do both teams score on this match?

Both teams to score is priced at 1.95. That is a market price, not a forecast that both sides will score.

Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid prediction, H2H and stats