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Arsenal vs Manchester City Prediction, H2H, Stats & Betting Tips

England · Community ShieldSun, 16 Aug 2026

Arsenal

Sun, 16 Aug 202615:00

3 : 0

Full time

Manchester City

Pre-match win probability

31.8%Arsenal28.1%Draw40.1%Manchester City

Our prediction

Manchester City

Manchester City is the shortest 1X2 price in the stored market.

Odds2.38
Confidence40.1%
ResultGraded
Pre-match model probabilityPick and odds as published before kick-off
  • Arsenal 31.8%
  • Draw 28.1%
  • Manchester City 40.1%

Season statistics

Community Shield · highlighted side is stronger

ArsenalManchester City

Betting markets

Bookmaker prices with margin removed

Goal lineOverUnder
0.5 goals22.8% · 1.052.2% · 11
1.5 goals18.7% · 1.286.4% · 3.75
2.5 goals12.5% · 1.9112.5% · 1.91
3.5 goals7.5% · 3.217.6% · 1.36

Both teams to score

Yes54.7%
No45.3%

Double chance

1X50%
X250%

Match result

Arsenal3
Draw3.4
Manchester City2.38

Both teams to score

Yes54.7% · 1.7
No45.3% · 2.05

1X

Chance50%
Odds1.44

X2

Chance50%
Odds1.44

Arsenal

Chance31.8%
Odds3

Draw

Chance28.1%
Odds3.4

Manchester City

Chance40.1%
Odds2.38

No half-time prices stored.

No corner prices stored.

Model comparison

Our pick: Manchester City at 2.38

ArsenalManchester City
Recent form50%50%
Attack50%50%
Defence50%50%
Goals model50%50%
Overall44%56%

Arsenal vs Manchester City: prediction & preview

England · Community Shield · Sun, 16 Aug 2026

Arsenal meet Manchester City in the England, Community Shield on 16 August 2026 at 15:00 (Africa/Lagos). The recorded score is 3–0.

On the 1X2 market the shortest price is Manchester City at 2.38. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, that outcome carries about 40.1% of the implied chance, with the other two outcomes sharing the rest. A short price means the market rates that side more likely. It is not a certainty, and the margin means the three raw probabilities add up to more than 100% before they are scaled.

The 2.5-goal line is priced shorter on Over 2.5 (1.91, about 50% after the margin). Both teams to score is shorter on Yes at 1.7.

Season points-per-game rates were not stored on this fixture yet. The odds chart still shows how the 1X2, goals, and both-teams markets are priced.

Arsenal vs Manchester City FAQs

4 questions

What time is Arsenal vs Manchester City?

Kickoff is 15:00 on 16 August 2026, shown in Africa/Lagos.

Which outcome is shortest on Arsenal vs Manchester City?

Manchester City is the shortest 1X2 price at 2.38. The margin-adjusted share is about 40.1%.

What are the over and under 2.5 prices?

Over 2.5 is 1.91 and under 2.5 is 1.91.

Do both teams score on this match?

Both teams to score is priced at 1.7. That is a market price, not a forecast that both sides will score.

Arsenal vs Manchester City prediction, H2H and stats