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Aston Villa vs Newcastle Prediction, H2H, Stats & Betting Tips

England · FA CupSat, 14 Feb 2026

Aston Villa

WDLWW

Sat, 14 Feb 202618:45

1 : 3

Full time

Newcastle

WLLLD

Pre-match win probability

42.1%Aston Villa26.3%Draw31.6%Newcastle

Our prediction

Home · Aston Villa

Aston Villa vs Newcastle listed tip from the board.

Odds2.25
Confidence42.1%
ResultGraded
Pre-match model probabilityPick and odds as published before kick-off
  • Aston Villa 42.1%
  • Draw 26.3%
  • Newcastle 31.6%

Season statistics

FA Cup · highlighted side is stronger

Aston VillaNewcastle

Betting markets

Bookmaker prices with margin removed

Goal lineOverUnder
0.5 goals23% · 1.031.6% · 15
1.5 goals20.1% · 1.185.3% · 4.5
2.5 goals14.6% · 1.6210.3% · 2.3
3.5 goals9.5% · 2.515.8% · 1.5

Both teams to score

Yes60.9%
No39.1%

Double chance

1X54.4%
X245.6%

Match result

Aston Villa2.25
Draw3.6
Newcastle3

Both teams to score

Yes60.9% · 1.53
No39.1% · 2.38

1X

Chance54.4%
Odds1.36

X2

Chance45.6%
Odds1.62

Aston Villa

Chance42.1%
Odds2.25

Draw

Chance26.3%
Odds3.6

Newcastle

Chance31.6%
Odds3

No half-time prices stored.

No corner prices stored.

Model comparison

Our pick: Home at 2.25

Aston VillaNewcastle
Recent form50%50%
Attack50%50%
Defence50%50%
Goals model50%50%
Overall57%43%

Aston Villa vs Newcastle: prediction & preview

England · FA Cup · Sat, 14 Feb 2026

Aston Villa meet Newcastle in the England, FA Cup on 14 February 2026 at 18:45 (Africa/Lagos). The recorded score is 1–3.

On the 1X2 market the shortest price is Aston Villa at 2.25. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, that outcome carries about 42.1% of the implied chance, with the other two outcomes sharing the rest. A short price means the market rates that side more likely. It is not a certainty, and the margin means the three raw probabilities add up to more than 100% before they are scaled.

The 2.5-goal line is priced shorter on Over 2.5 (1.62, about 58.7% after the margin). Both teams to score is shorter on Yes at 1.53.

Season points-per-game rates were not stored on this fixture yet. The odds chart still shows how the 1X2, goals, and both-teams markets are priced.

Aston Villa vs Newcastle FAQs

4 questions

What time is Aston Villa vs Newcastle?

Kickoff is 18:45 on 14 February 2026, shown in Africa/Lagos.

Which outcome is shortest on Aston Villa vs Newcastle?

Aston Villa is the shortest 1X2 price at 2.25. The margin-adjusted share is about 42.1%.

What are the over and under 2.5 prices?

Over 2.5 is 1.62 and under 2.5 is 2.3.

Do both teams score on this match?

Both teams to score is priced at 1.53. That is a market price, not a forecast that both sides will score.

Aston Villa vs Newcastle prediction, H2H and stats