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Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Prediction, H2H, Stats & Betting Tips

Spain · Super CupThu, 8 Jan 2026

Atletico Madrid

DWWWW

Thu, 8 Jan 202620:00

1 : 2

Full time

Real Madrid

WWWWL

Pre-match win probability

31.6%Atletico Madrid26.3%Draw42.1%Real Madrid

Our prediction

Draw · Atletico Madrid

Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid listed tip from the board.

Odds3.6
Confidence42.1%
ResultGraded
Pre-match model probabilityPick and odds as published before kick-off
  • Atletico Madrid 31.6%
  • Draw 26.3%
  • Real Madrid 42.1%

Season statistics

Super Cup · highlighted side is stronger

Atletico MadridReal Madrid

Betting markets

Bookmaker prices with margin removed

Goal lineOverUnder
0.5 goals23.1% · 1.031.6% · 15
1.5 goals20.3% · 1.174.8% · 5
2.5 goals14.7% · 1.6210.3% · 2.3
3.5 goals10% · 2.3815.2% · 1.57

Both teams to score

Yes62.5%
No37.5%

Double chance

1X45.6%
X254.4%

Match result

Atletico Madrid3
Draw3.6
Real Madrid2.25

Both teams to score

Yes62.5% · 1.5
No37.5% · 2.5

1X

Chance45.6%
Odds1.62

X2

Chance54.4%
Odds1.36

Atletico Madrid

Chance31.6%
Odds3

Draw

Chance26.3%
Odds3.6

Real Madrid

Chance42.1%
Odds2.25

No half-time prices stored.

No corner prices stored.

Model comparison

Our pick: Draw at 3.6

Atletico MadridReal Madrid
Recent form50%50%
Attack50%50%
Defence50%50%
Goals model50%50%
Overall43%57%

Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid: prediction & preview

Spain · Super Cup · Thu, 8 Jan 2026

Atletico Madrid meet Real Madrid in the Spain, Super Cup on 8 January 2026 at 20:00 (Africa/Lagos). The recorded score is 1–2.

On the 1X2 market the shortest price is Real Madrid at 2.25. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, that outcome carries about 42.1% of the implied chance, with the other two outcomes sharing the rest. A short price means the market rates that side more likely. It is not a certainty, and the margin means the three raw probabilities add up to more than 100% before they are scaled.

The 2.5-goal line is priced shorter on Over 2.5 (1.62, about 58.7% after the margin). Both teams to score is shorter on Yes at 1.5.

Season points-per-game rates were not stored on this fixture yet. The odds chart still shows how the 1X2, goals, and both-teams markets are priced.

Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid FAQs

4 questions

What time is Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid?

Kickoff is 20:00 on 8 January 2026, shown in Africa/Lagos.

Which outcome is shortest on Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid?

Real Madrid is the shortest 1X2 price at 2.25. The margin-adjusted share is about 42.1%.

What are the over and under 2.5 prices?

Over 2.5 is 1.62 and under 2.5 is 2.3.

Do both teams score on this match?

Both teams to score is priced at 1.5. That is a market price, not a forecast that both sides will score.

Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid prediction, H2H and stats