Burnley vs Derby Prediction, H2H, Stats & Betting Tips

England · ChampionshipSat, 19 Sept 2026

Burnley

LDLDL

Sat, 19 Sept 202615:00

1 : 1

Full time

Derby

LLLWL

Pre-match win probability

51.9%Burnley25.9%Draw22.2%Derby

Our prediction

Draw · Burnley

Burnley vs Derby listed tip from the board.

Odds3.6
Confidence51.9%
ResultGraded
Pre-match model probabilityPick and odds as published before kick-off
  • Burnley 51.9%
  • Draw 25.9%
  • Derby 22.2%

Season statistics

Championship · highlighted side is stronger

BurnleyDerby

Betting markets

Bookmaker prices with margin removed

Goal lineOverUnder
0.5 goals22.7% · 1.052.2% · 11
1.5 goals19.1% · 1.256% · 4
2.5 goals13.2% · 1.811.9% · 2
3.5 goals7.9% · 317% · 1.4

Both teams to score

Yes53.6%
No46.4%

Double chance

1X62.9%
X237.1%

Match result

Burnley1.8
Draw3.6
Derby4.2

Both teams to score

Yes53.6% · 1.73
No46.4% · 2

1X

Chance62.9%
Odds1.18

X2

Chance37.1%
Odds2

Burnley

Chance51.9%
Odds1.8

Draw

Chance25.9%
Odds3.6

Derby

Chance22.2%
Odds4.2

No half-time prices stored.

No corner prices stored.

Model comparison

Our pick: Draw at 3.6

BurnleyDerby
Recent form50%50%
Attack50%50%
Defence50%50%
Goals model50%50%
Overall70%30%

Burnley vs Derby: prediction & preview

England · Championship · Sat, 19 Sept 2026

Burnley meet Derby in the England, Championship on 19 September 2026 at 15:00 (Africa/Lagos). The recorded score is 1–1.

On the 1X2 market the shortest price is Burnley at 1.8. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, that outcome carries about 51.9% of the implied chance, with the other two outcomes sharing the rest. A short price means the market rates that side more likely. It is not a certainty, and the margin means the three raw probabilities add up to more than 100% before they are scaled.

The 2.5-goal line is priced shorter on Over 2.5 (1.8, about 52.6% after the margin). Both teams to score is shorter on Yes at 1.73.

Season points-per-game rates were not stored on this fixture yet. The odds chart still shows how the 1X2, goals, and both-teams markets are priced.

Burnley vs Derby FAQs

4 questions

What time is Burnley vs Derby?

Kickoff is 15:00 on 19 September 2026, shown in Africa/Lagos.

Which outcome is shortest on Burnley vs Derby?

Burnley is the shortest 1X2 price at 1.8. The margin-adjusted share is about 51.9%.

What are the over and under 2.5 prices?

Over 2.5 is 1.8 and under 2.5 is 2.

Do both teams score on this match?

Both teams to score is priced at 1.73. That is a market price, not a forecast that both sides will score.

Burnley vs Derby prediction, H2H and stats