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Castro vs Tropezón Prediction, H2H, Stats & Betting Tips

Spain · Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Sun, 4 Oct 2026

Castro

10th in table · 8 pts

DLLWL

Sun, 4 Oct 202616:00

0 : 2

Full time

Tropezón

1st in table · 20 pts

Pre-match win probability

31.2%Castro28%Draw40.8%Tropezón

Our prediction

Tropezón

Tropezón is the shortest 1X2 price in the stored market.

Odds2.2
Confidence40.8%
ResultGraded
Pre-match model probabilityPick and odds as published before kick-off
  • Castro 31.2%
  • Draw 28%
  • Tropezón 40.8%

Season statistics

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · 9 matches each · highlighted side is stronger

CastroTropezón
Goals scored (avg)
1.1–
Goals conceded (avg)Lower is better
1.3–
Wins
26
Played
88

Recent form

Last matches · newest first

Castro2W 3D 4L in last 9
  • 25 OctNaval Reinosa2 – 1CastroL
  • 17 OctCastro3 – 0EscobedoW
  • 10 OctAtlético Albericia4 – 2CastroL
  • 27 SeptCastro0 – 2Atlético MinerosL
  • 19 SeptRevilla2 – 2CastroD
Tropezón0W 0D 0L in last 0
    H2H
    Head to headCastro 2W · 1D · Tropezón 6W · 2.2 goals a game
    • 9 MayCastro0 – 2Tropezón
    • 11 JanTropezón3 – 1Castro
    • 24 MayTropezón2 – 0Castro
    • 18 MayCastro0 – 1Tropezón
    • 19 JanTropezón1 – 0Castro
    • 8 SeptCastro2 – 1Tropezón

    Betting markets

    Bookmaker prices with margin removed

    Goal lineOverUnder
    2.5 goals41% · 2.359% · 1.6

    Double chance

    1X35.2%
    X264.8%

    Match result

    Castro2.88
    Draw3.2
    Tropezón2.2

    No BTTS prices stored.

    1X

    Chance35.2%
    Odds2.1

    X2

    Chance64.8%
    Odds1.14

    Castro

    Chance31.2%
    Odds2.88

    Draw

    Chance28%
    Odds3.2

    Tropezón

    Chance40.8%
    Odds2.2

    No half-time prices stored.

    No corner prices stored.

    Model comparison

    Our pick: Tropezón at 2.2

    CastroTropezón
    Recent form90%10%
    Attack52%48%
    Defence63%37%
    Goals model52%48%
    Head-to-head28%72%
    Overall43%57%

    Trends

    Trend · Tercera División RFEF - Group 3

    Castro scored 1.1 per game in the last 9.

    Trend · Tercera División RFEF - Group 3

    Castro conceded 1.3 per game in the last 9.

    Trend · Tercera División RFEF - Group 3

    Failed to score in 4 of those 9.

    Trend · Tercera División RFEF - Group 3

    Kept a clean sheet in 4 of those 9.

    Castro vs Tropezón: prediction & preview

    Spain · Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Sun, 4 Oct 2026

    Castro meet Tropezón in the Spain, Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on 4 October 2026 at 16:00 (Africa/Lagos). The recorded score is 0–2.

    On the 1X2 market the shortest price is Tropezón at 2.2. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, that outcome carries about 40.8% of the implied chance, with the other two outcomes sharing the rest. A short price means the market rates that side more likely. It is not a certainty, and the margin means the three raw probabilities add up to more than 100% before they are scaled.

    The 2.5-goal line is priced shorter on Under 2.5 (1.6, about 59% after the margin).

    Season points-per-game rates were not stored on this fixture yet. The odds chart still shows how the 1X2, goals, and both-teams markets are priced.

    Castro vs Tropezón FAQs

    4 questions

    What time is Castro vs Tropezón?

    Kickoff is 16:00 on 4 October 2026, shown in Africa/Lagos.

    Which outcome is shortest on Castro vs Tropezón?

    Tropezón is the shortest 1X2 price at 2.2. The margin-adjusted share is about 40.8%.

    What are the over and under 2.5 prices?

    Over 2.5 is 2.3 and under 2.5 is 1.6.

    Do both teams score on this match?

    A both-teams-to-score price is not stored for this match.