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Danubio vs Progreso Prediction, H2H, Stats & Betting Tips

Uruguay · Primera DivisiónSat, 28 Feb 2026

Danubio

WLWWL

Sat, 28 Feb 202621:00

2 : 2

Full time

Progreso

WLDWW

Pre-match win probability

46.1%Danubio29%Draw25%Progreso

Our prediction

Danubio

Danubio is the shortest 1X2 price in the stored market.

Odds1.95
Confidence46.1%
ResultGraded
Pre-match model probabilityPick and odds as published before kick-off
  • Danubio 46.1%
  • Draw 29%
  • Progreso 25%

Season statistics

Primera División · 10 matches each · highlighted side is stronger

DanubioProgreso
Goals scored (avg)
1.31.3
Goals conceded (avg)Lower is better
1.21.2

Recent form

Last matches · newest first

Danubio3W 3D 4L in last 10
  • 24 OctDeportivo Maldonado2 – 1DanubioL
  • 18 OctDanubio1 – 0Central EspanolW
  • 15 OctCentral Espanol0 – 6DanubioW
  • 9 OctAtletico Torque1 – 0DanubioL
  • 4 OctDanubio2 – 1Cerro LargoW
Progreso5W 1D 4L in last 10
  • 25 OctWanderers0 – 1ProgresoW
  • 17 OctProgreso2 – 0JuventudW
  • 10 OctPenarol1 – 1ProgresoD
  • 3 OctLiverpool Montevideo3 – 2ProgresoL
  • 26 SeptProgreso2 – 1Racing MontevideoW
H2H
Head to headDanubio 1W · 4D · Progreso 4W · 1.7 goals a game
  • 29 AugProgreso1 – 0Danubio
  • 30 MayDanubio1 – 2Progreso
  • 24 AugProgreso1 – 0Danubio
  • 31 MayProgreso0 – 1Danubio
  • 23 FebDanubio1 – 1Progreso
  • 12 OctProgreso0 – 0Danubio

Betting markets

Bookmaker prices with margin removed

Goal lineOverUnder
0.5 goals21.7% · 1.082.9% · 8
1.5 goals16.8% · 1.48.5% · 2.75
2.5 goals10.4% · 2.2514.5% · 1.62
3.5 goals5.9% · 419.2% · 1.22

Both teams to score

Yes46.4%
No53.6%

Double chance

1X58.1%
X241.9%

Match result

Danubio1.95
Draw3.1
Progreso3.6

Both teams to score

Yes46.4% · 2
No53.6% · 1.73

1X

Chance58.1%
Odds1.25

X2

Chance41.9%
Odds1.73

Danubio

Chance46.1%
Odds1.95

Draw

Chance29%
Odds3.1

Progreso

Chance25%
Odds3.6

No half-time prices stored.

No corner prices stored.

Model comparison

Our pick: Danubio at 1.95

DanubioProgreso
Recent form43%57%
Attack50%50%
Defence50%50%
Goals model50%50%
Head-to-head33%67%
Overall65%35%

Trends

Trend · Primera División

Danubio scored 1.3 per game in the last 10.

Trend · Primera División

Danubio conceded 1.2 per game in the last 10.

Trend · Primera División

Failed to score in 3 of those 10.

Trend · Primera División

Kept a clean sheet in 2 of those 10.

Danubio vs Progreso: prediction & preview

Uruguay · Primera División · Sat, 28 Feb 2026

Danubio meet Progreso in the Uruguay, Primera División on 28 February 2026 at 21:00 (Africa/Lagos). The recorded score is 2–2.

On the 1X2 market the shortest price is Danubio at 1.95. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, that outcome carries about 46.1% of the implied chance, with the other two outcomes sharing the rest. A short price means the market rates that side more likely. It is not a certainty, and the margin means the three raw probabilities add up to more than 100% before they are scaled.

The 2.5-goal line is priced shorter on Under 2.5 (1.62, about 58.1% after the margin). Both teams to score is shorter on No at 1.73.

Season points-per-game rates were not stored on this fixture yet. The odds chart still shows how the 1X2, goals, and both-teams markets are priced.

Danubio vs Progreso FAQs

4 questions

What time is Danubio vs Progreso?

Kickoff is 21:00 on 28 February 2026, shown in Africa/Lagos.

Which outcome is shortest on Danubio vs Progreso?

Danubio is the shortest 1X2 price at 1.95. The margin-adjusted share is about 46.1%.

What are the over and under 2.5 prices?

Over 2.5 is 2.25 and under 2.5 is 1.62.

Do both teams score on this match?

Both teams to score is priced at 2. That is a market price, not a forecast that both sides will score.