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Derby vs Birmingham Prediction, H2H, Stats & Betting Tips

England · ChampionshipSat, 21 Mar 2026

Derby

8th in table · 69 pts

DDLLD

Sat, 21 Mar 202613:30

1 : 0

Full time

Birmingham

10th in table · 64 pts

DWWWL

Pre-match win probability

34.8%Derby28.4%Draw36.8%Birmingham

Our prediction

Home · Derby

Derby vs Birmingham listed tip from the board.

Odds2.7
Confidence36.8%
ResultGraded
Pre-match model probabilityPick and odds as published before kick-off
  • Derby 34.8%
  • Draw 28.4%
  • Birmingham 36.8%

Season statistics

Championship · 10 matches each · highlighted side is stronger

DerbyBirmingham
Goals scored (avg)
0.71.8
Goals conceded (avg)Lower is better
1.71
Wins
2017
Played
4646

Recent form

Last matches · newest first

Derby1W 3D 6L in last 10
  • 24 OctSheffield Utd1 – 1DerbyD
  • 17 OctDerby0 – 1Stoke CityL
  • 14 OctQPR4 – 1DerbyL
  • 10 OctDerby1 – 1WrexhamD
  • 19 SeptBurnley1 – 1DerbyD
Birmingham5W 3D 2L in last 10
  • 24 OctCardiff1 – 0BirminghamL
  • 17 OctBirmingham3 – 0QPRW
  • 13 OctBirmingham4 – 0PrestonW
  • 10 OctWest Brom0 – 1BirminghamW
  • 19 SeptBirmingham2 – 2MiddlesbroughD
H2H
Head to headDerby 3W · 3D · Birmingham 3W · 3.4 goals a game
  • 12 SeptDerby1 – 2Birmingham
  • 26 DecBirmingham1 – 1Derby
  • 30 JanDerby2 – 2Birmingham
  • 10 SeptBirmingham2 – 0Derby
  • 24 AprDerby1 – 2Birmingham
  • 29 DecBirmingham0 – 4Derby

Betting markets

Bookmaker prices with margin removed

Goal lineOverUnder
0.5 goals22.4% · 1.062.4% · 10
1.5 goals18.3% · 1.36.8% · 3.5
2.5 goals11.9% · 213.2% · 1.8
3.5 goals6.8% · 3.518.3% · 1.3

Both teams to score

Yes53.6%
No46.4%

Double chance

1X48.3%
X251.7%

Match result

Derby2.7
Draw3.3
Birmingham2.55

Both teams to score

Yes53.6% · 1.73
No46.4% · 2

1X

Chance48.3%
Odds1.5

X2

Chance51.7%
Odds1.4

Derby

Chance34.8%
Odds2.7

Draw

Chance28.4%
Odds3.3

Birmingham

Chance36.8%
Odds2.55

No half-time prices stored.

No corner prices stored.

Model comparison

Our pick: Home at 2.7

DerbyBirmingham
Recent form25%75%
Attack28%72%
Defence39%61%
Goals model28%72%
Head-to-head50%50%
Overall49%51%

Trends

Trend · Championship

Derby scored 0.7 per game in the last 10.

Trend · Championship

Derby conceded 1.7 per game in the last 10.

Trend · Championship

Failed to score in 4 of those 10.

Trend · Championship

Kept a clean sheet in 1 of those 10.

Derby vs Birmingham: prediction & preview

England · Championship · Sat, 21 Mar 2026

Derby meet Birmingham in the England, Championship on 21 March 2026 at 13:30 (Africa/Lagos). The recorded score is 1–0.

On the 1X2 market the shortest price is Birmingham at 2.55. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, that outcome carries about 36.8% of the implied chance, with the other two outcomes sharing the rest. A short price means the market rates that side more likely. It is not a certainty, and the margin means the three raw probabilities add up to more than 100% before they are scaled.

The 2.5-goal line is priced shorter on Under 2.5 (1.8, about 52.6% after the margin). Both teams to score is shorter on Yes at 1.73.

Season points-per-game rates were not stored on this fixture yet. The odds chart still shows how the 1X2, goals, and both-teams markets are priced.

Derby vs Birmingham FAQs

4 questions

What time is Derby vs Birmingham?

Kickoff is 13:30 on 21 March 2026, shown in Africa/Lagos.

Which outcome is shortest on Derby vs Birmingham?

Birmingham is the shortest 1X2 price at 2.55. The margin-adjusted share is about 36.8%.

What are the over and under 2.5 prices?

Over 2.5 is 2 and under 2.5 is 1.8.

Do both teams score on this match?

Both teams to score is priced at 1.73. That is a market price, not a forecast that both sides will score.