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Derby vs Birmingham Prediction, H2H, Stats & Betting Tips

England · ChampionshipSat, 12 Sept 2026

Derby

23rd in table · 7 pts

DDLLD

Sat, 12 Sept 202612:30

1 : 2

Full time

Birmingham

7th in table · 20 pts

Pre-match win probability

28.3%Derby28.3%Draw43.4%Birmingham

Our prediction

Birmingham

Birmingham is the shortest 1X2 price in the stored market.

Odds2.15
Confidence43.4%
ResultGraded
Pre-match model probabilityPick and odds as published before kick-off
  • Derby 28.3%
  • Draw 28.3%
  • Birmingham 43.4%

Season statistics

Championship · 9 matches each · highlighted side is stronger

DerbyBirmingham
Goals scored (avg)
0.7–
Goals conceded (avg)Lower is better
1.7–
Wins
15
Played
1212

Recent form

Last matches · newest first

Derby1W 3D 5L in last 9
  • 24 OctSheffield Utd1 – 1DerbyD
  • 17 OctDerby0 – 1Stoke CityL
  • 14 OctQPR4 – 1DerbyL
  • 10 OctDerby1 – 1WrexhamD
  • 19 SeptBurnley1 – 1DerbyD
Birmingham0W 0D 0L in last 0
    H2H
    Head to headNo previous meetings found between these sides.

    Betting markets

    Bookmaker prices with margin removed

    Goal lineOverUnder
    0.5 goals22.5% · 1.062.4% · 10
    1.5 goals17.9% · 1.337% · 3.4
    2.5 goals11.9% · 213.2% · 1.8
    3.5 goals6.8% · 3.518.3% · 1.3

    Both teams to score

    Yes51.5%
    No48.5%

    Double chance

    1X44.3%
    X255.7%

    Match result

    Derby3.3
    Draw3.3
    Birmingham2.15

    Both teams to score

    Yes51.5% · 1.8
    No48.5% · 1.91

    1X

    Chance44.3%
    Odds1.67

    X2

    Chance55.7%
    Odds1.33

    Derby

    Chance28.3%
    Odds3.3

    Draw

    Chance28.3%
    Odds3.3

    Birmingham

    Chance43.4%
    Odds2.15

    No half-time prices stored.

    No corner prices stored.

    Model comparison

    Our pick: Birmingham at 2.15

    DerbyBirmingham
    Recent form86%14%
    Attack41%59%
    Defence57%43%
    Goals model41%59%
    Overall39%61%

    Trends

    Trend · Championship

    Derby scored 0.7 per game in the last 9.

    Trend · Championship

    Derby conceded 1.7 per game in the last 9.

    Trend · Championship

    Failed to score in 4 of those 9.

    Trend · Championship

    Kept a clean sheet in 1 of those 9.

    Derby vs Birmingham: prediction & preview

    England · Championship · Sat, 12 Sept 2026

    Derby meet Birmingham in the England, Championship on 12 September 2026 at 12:30 (Africa/Lagos). The recorded score is 1–2.

    On the 1X2 market the shortest price is Birmingham at 2.15. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, that outcome carries about 43.4% of the implied chance, with the other two outcomes sharing the rest. A short price means the market rates that side more likely. It is not a certainty, and the margin means the three raw probabilities add up to more than 100% before they are scaled.

    The 2.5-goal line is priced shorter on Under 2.5 (1.8, about 52.6% after the margin). Both teams to score is shorter on Yes at 1.8.

    Season points-per-game rates were not stored on this fixture yet. The odds chart still shows how the 1X2, goals, and both-teams markets are priced.

    Derby vs Birmingham FAQs

    4 questions

    What time is Derby vs Birmingham?

    Kickoff is 12:30 on 12 September 2026, shown in Africa/Lagos.

    Which outcome is shortest on Derby vs Birmingham?

    Birmingham is the shortest 1X2 price at 2.15. The margin-adjusted share is about 43.4%.

    What are the over and under 2.5 prices?

    Over 2.5 is 2 and under 2.5 is 1.8.

    Do both teams score on this match?

    Both teams to score is priced at 1.8. That is a market price, not a forecast that both sides will score.

    Derby vs Birmingham prediction, H2H and stats