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Derby vs Leeds Prediction, H2H, Stats & Betting Tips

England · FA CupSun, 11 Jan 2026

Derby

LWLDD

Sun, 11 Jan 202613:00

1 : 3

Full time

Leeds

LDDDW

Pre-match win probability

18.9%Derby25.5%Draw55.6%Leeds

Our prediction

Away or Draw · Derby

Derby vs Leeds listed tip from the board.

Odds1.17
Confidence55.6%
ResultGraded
Pre-match model probabilityPick and odds as published before kick-off
  • Derby 18.9%
  • Draw 25.5%
  • Leeds 55.6%

Season statistics

FA Cup · highlighted side is stronger

DerbyLeeds

Betting markets

Bookmaker prices with margin removed

Goal lineOverUnder
0.5 goals22.5% · 1.052.1% · 11
1.5 goals18.5% · 1.286.8% · 3.5
2.5 goals11.8% · 213.1% · 1.8
3.5 goals7% · 3.418.2% · 1.3

Both teams to score

Yes50%
No50%

Double chance

1X35.8%
X264.2%

Match result

Derby5
Draw3.7
Leeds1.7

Both teams to score

Yes50% · 1.91
No50% · 1.91

1X

Chance35.8%
Odds2.1

X2

Chance64.2%
Odds1.17

Derby

Chance18.9%
Odds5

Draw

Chance25.5%
Odds3.7

Leeds

Chance55.6%
Odds1.7

No half-time prices stored.

No corner prices stored.

Model comparison

Our pick: Away or Draw at 1.17

DerbyLeeds
Recent form50%50%
Attack50%50%
Defence50%50%
Goals model50%50%
Overall25%75%

Derby vs Leeds: prediction & preview

England · FA Cup · Sun, 11 Jan 2026

Derby meet Leeds in the England, FA Cup on 11 January 2026 at 13:00 (Africa/Lagos). The recorded score is 1–3.

On the 1X2 market the shortest price is Leeds at 1.7. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, that outcome carries about 55.6% of the implied chance, with the other two outcomes sharing the rest. A short price means the market rates that side more likely. It is not a certainty, and the margin means the three raw probabilities add up to more than 100% before they are scaled.

The 2.5-goal line is priced shorter on Under 2.5 (1.8, about 52.6% after the margin). Both teams to score is shorter on Yes at 1.91.

Season points-per-game rates were not stored on this fixture yet. The odds chart still shows how the 1X2, goals, and both-teams markets are priced.

Derby vs Leeds FAQs

4 questions

What time is Derby vs Leeds?

Kickoff is 13:00 on 11 January 2026, shown in Africa/Lagos.

Which outcome is shortest on Derby vs Leeds?

Leeds is the shortest 1X2 price at 1.7. The margin-adjusted share is about 55.6%.

What are the over and under 2.5 prices?

Over 2.5 is 2 and under 2.5 is 1.8.

Do both teams score on this match?

Both teams to score is priced at 1.91. That is a market price, not a forecast that both sides will score.

Derby vs Leeds prediction, H2H and stats