Get Premium

Derby vs Middlesbrough Prediction, H2H, Stats & Betting Tips

England · ChampionshipThu, 1 Jan 2026

Derby

8th in table · 69 pts

DDLLD

Thu, 1 Jan 202616:00

1 : 0

Full time

Middlesbrough

5th in table · 80 pts

DWWDW

Pre-match win probability

30.3%Derby28.9%Draw40.8%Middlesbrough

Our prediction

Away or Draw · Derby

Derby vs Middlesbrough listed tip from the board.

Odds1.36
Confidence40.8%
ResultGraded
Pre-match model probabilityPick and odds as published before kick-off
  • Derby 30.3%
  • Draw 28.9%
  • Middlesbrough 40.8%

Season statistics

Championship · 10 matches each · highlighted side is stronger

DerbyMiddlesbrough
Goals scored (avg)
0.72.1
Goals conceded (avg)Lower is better
1.71.6
Wins
2022
Played
4646

Recent form

Last matches · newest first

Derby1W 3D 6L in last 10
  • 24 OctSheffield Utd1 – 1DerbyD
  • 17 OctDerby0 – 1Stoke CityL
  • 14 OctQPR4 – 1DerbyL
  • 10 OctDerby1 – 1WrexhamD
  • 19 SeptBurnley1 – 1DerbyD
Middlesbrough5W 4D 1L in last 10
  • 23 OctBolton1 – 5MiddlesbroughW
  • 17 OctMiddlesbrough2 – 2CardiffD
  • 13 OctStoke City2 – 3MiddlesbroughW
  • 10 OctMiddlesbrough1 – 0WolvesW
  • 19 SeptBirmingham2 – 2MiddlesbroughD
H2H
Head to headDerby 3W · 2D · Middlesbrough 4W · 2.4 goals a game
  • 29 NovMiddlesbrough2 – 1Derby
  • 1 MarMiddlesbrough1 – 0Derby
  • 17 AugDerby1 – 0Middlesbrough
  • 12 FebMiddlesbrough4 – 1Derby
  • 21 AugDerby0 – 0Middlesbrough
  • 13 FebDerby2 – 1Middlesbrough

Betting markets

Bookmaker prices with margin removed

Goal lineOverUnder
0.5 goals22% · 1.083% · 8
1.5 goals17.5% · 1.367.4% · 3.2
2.5 goals10.8% · 2.214.3% · 1.67
3.5 goals5.9% · 419% · 1.25

Both teams to score

Yes50%
No50%

Double chance

1X46.4%
X253.6%

Match result

Derby3.1
Draw3.25
Middlesbrough2.3

Both teams to score

Yes50% · 1.83
No50% · 1.83

1X

Chance46.4%
Odds1.57

X2

Chance53.6%
Odds1.36

Derby

Chance30.3%
Odds3.1

Draw

Chance28.9%
Odds3.25

Middlesbrough

Chance40.8%
Odds2.3

No half-time prices stored.

No corner prices stored.

Model comparison

Our pick: Away or Draw at 1.36

DerbyMiddlesbrough
Recent form24%76%
Attack25%75%
Defence48%52%
Goals model25%75%
Head-to-head44%56%
Overall43%57%

Trends

Trend · Championship

Derby scored 0.7 per game in the last 10.

Trend · Championship

Derby conceded 1.7 per game in the last 10.

Trend · Championship

Failed to score in 4 of those 10.

Trend · Championship

Kept a clean sheet in 1 of those 10.

Derby vs Middlesbrough: prediction & preview

England · Championship · Thu, 1 Jan 2026

Derby meet Middlesbrough in the England, Championship on 1 January 2026 at 16:00 (Africa/Lagos). The recorded score is 1–0.

On the 1X2 market the shortest price is Middlesbrough at 2.3. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, that outcome carries about 40.8% of the implied chance, with the other two outcomes sharing the rest. A short price means the market rates that side more likely. It is not a certainty, and the margin means the three raw probabilities add up to more than 100% before they are scaled.

The 2.5-goal line is priced shorter on Under 2.5 (1.67, about 56.8% after the margin). Both teams to score is shorter on Yes at 1.83.

Season points-per-game rates were not stored on this fixture yet. The odds chart still shows how the 1X2, goals, and both-teams markets are priced.

Derby vs Middlesbrough FAQs

4 questions

What time is Derby vs Middlesbrough?

Kickoff is 16:00 on 1 January 2026, shown in Africa/Lagos.

Which outcome is shortest on Derby vs Middlesbrough?

Middlesbrough is the shortest 1X2 price at 2.3. The margin-adjusted share is about 40.8%.

What are the over and under 2.5 prices?

Over 2.5 is 2.2 and under 2.5 is 1.67.

Do both teams score on this match?

Both teams to score is priced at 1.83. That is a market price, not a forecast that both sides will score.