Derby vs Swansea Prediction, H2H, Stats & Betting Tips

England · ChampionshipSat, 14 Feb 2026

Derby

LWDWW

Sat, 14 Feb 202616:00

2 : 0

Full time

Swansea

WWLWD

Pre-match win probability

39.2%Derby29.4%Draw31.4%Swansea

Our prediction

Draw · Derby

Derby vs Swansea listed tip from the board.

Odds3.2
Confidence39.2%
ResultGraded
Pre-match model probabilityPick and odds as published before kick-off
  • Derby 39.2%
  • Draw 29.4%
  • Swansea 31.4%

Season statistics

Championship · highlighted side is stronger

DerbySwansea

Betting markets

Bookmaker prices with margin removed

Goal lineOverUnder
0.5 goals22% · 1.083% · 8
1.5 goals17% · 1.47.9% · 3
2.5 goals10.3% · 2.314.7% · 1.62
3.5 goals5.5% · 4.3319.5% · 1.22

Both teams to score

Yes48.5%
No51.5%

Double chance

1X52.9%
X247.1%

Match result

Derby2.4
Draw3.2
Swansea3

Both teams to score

Yes48.5% · 1.91
No51.5% · 1.8

1X

Chance52.9%
Odds1.36

X2

Chance47.1%
Odds1.53

Derby

Chance39.2%
Odds2.4

Draw

Chance29.4%
Odds3.2

Swansea

Chance31.4%
Odds3

No half-time prices stored.

No corner prices stored.

Model comparison

Our pick: Draw at 3.2

DerbySwansea
Recent form50%50%
Attack50%50%
Defence50%50%
Goals model50%50%
Overall56%44%

Derby vs Swansea: prediction & preview

England · Championship · Sat, 14 Feb 2026

Derby meet Swansea in the England, Championship on 14 February 2026 at 16:00 (Africa/Lagos). The recorded score is 2–0.

On the 1X2 market the shortest price is Derby at 2.4. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, that outcome carries about 39.2% of the implied chance, with the other two outcomes sharing the rest. A short price means the market rates that side more likely. It is not a certainty, and the margin means the three raw probabilities add up to more than 100% before they are scaled.

The 2.5-goal line is priced shorter on Under 2.5 (1.62, about 58.7% after the margin). Both teams to score is shorter on No at 1.8.

Season points-per-game rates were not stored on this fixture yet. The odds chart still shows how the 1X2, goals, and both-teams markets are priced.

Derby vs Swansea FAQs

4 questions

What time is Derby vs Swansea?

Kickoff is 16:00 on 14 February 2026, shown in Africa/Lagos.

Which outcome is shortest on Derby vs Swansea?

Derby is the shortest 1X2 price at 2.4. The margin-adjusted share is about 39.2%.

What are the over and under 2.5 prices?

Over 2.5 is 2.3 and under 2.5 is 1.62.

Do both teams score on this match?

Both teams to score is priced at 1.91. That is a market price, not a forecast that both sides will score.

Derby vs Swansea prediction, H2H and stats