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Guimaraes vs Nacional Prediction, H2H, Stats & Betting Tips

Portugal · Primeira LigaFri, 2 Jan 2026

Guimaraes

9th in table · 42 pts

DWLWW

Fri, 2 Jan 202621:45

2 : 1

Full time

Nacional

14th in table · 34 pts

LLLLW

Pre-match win probability

50.7%Guimaraes28.4%Draw20.9%Nacional

Our prediction

Home or Draw · Guimaraes

Guimaraes vs Nacional listed tip from the board.

Odds1.18
Confidence50.7%
ResultGraded
Pre-match model probabilityPick and odds as published before kick-off
  • Guimaraes 50.7%
  • Draw 28.4%
  • Nacional 20.9%

Season statistics

Primeira Liga · 10 matches each · highlighted side is stronger

GuimaraesNacional
Goals scored (avg)
1.21
Goals conceded (avg)Lower is better
0.91.9
Wins
129
Played
3434

Recent form

Last matches · newest first

Guimaraes4W 2D 4L in last 10
  • 23 OctVitória SC5 – 0MaritimoW
  • 17 OctRecreativa de Lamelas0 – 1Vitória SCW
  • 11 OctBenfica2 – 0Vitória SCL
  • 25 SeptChaves0 – 1Vitória SCW
  • 20 SeptVitória SC1 – 1MoreirenseD
Nacional2W 1D 7L in last 10
  • 25 OctNacional1 – 0SC BragaW
  • 17 OctSanjoanense1 – 0NacionalL
  • 11 OctRio Ave3 – 2NacionalL
  • 19 SeptNacional0 – 4FamalicaoL
  • 12 SeptNacional1 – 3AlvercaL
H2H
Head to headGuimaraes 4W · 2D · Nacional 3W · 2.6 goals a game
  • 23 AugVitória SC1 – 0Nacional
  • 16 MayNacional2 – 0Vitória SC
  • 3 MayNacional1 – 2Vitória SC
  • 23 DecVitória SC2 – 2Nacional
  • 26 AprNacional1 – 0Vitória SC
  • 21 JanVitória SC3 – 1Nacional

Betting markets

Bookmaker prices with margin removed

Goal lineOverUnder
0.5 goals22% · 1.072.6% · 9
1.5 goals17.3% · 1.367.9% · 3
2.5 goals11% · 2.1514.1% · 1.67
3.5 goals6.3% · 3.7518.8% · 1.25

Both teams to score

Yes50%
No50%

Double chance

1X61.8%
X238.2%

Match result

Guimaraes1.85
Draw3.3
Nacional4.5

Both teams to score

Yes50% · 1.91
No50% · 1.91

1X

Chance61.8%
Odds1.18

X2

Chance38.2%
Odds1.91

Guimaraes

Chance50.7%
Odds1.85

Draw

Chance28.4%
Odds3.3

Nacional

Chance20.9%
Odds4.5

No half-time prices stored.

No corner prices stored.

Model comparison

Our pick: Home or Draw at 1.18

GuimaraesNacional
Recent form67%33%
Attack55%45%
Defence66%34%
Goals model55%45%
Head-to-head56%44%
Overall71%29%

Trends

Trend · Primeira Liga

Guimaraes scored 1.2 per game in the last 10.

Trend · Primeira Liga

Guimaraes conceded 0.9 per game in the last 10.

Trend · Primeira Liga

Failed to score in 3 of those 10.

Trend · Primeira Liga

Kept a clean sheet in 5 of those 10.

Guimaraes vs Nacional: prediction & preview

Portugal · Primeira Liga · Fri, 2 Jan 2026

Guimaraes meet Nacional in the Portugal, Primeira Liga on 2 January 2026 at 21:45 (Africa/Lagos). The recorded score is 2–1.

On the 1X2 market the shortest price is Guimaraes at 1.85. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, that outcome carries about 50.7% of the implied chance, with the other two outcomes sharing the rest. A short price means the market rates that side more likely. It is not a certainty, and the margin means the three raw probabilities add up to more than 100% before they are scaled.

The 2.5-goal line is priced shorter on Under 2.5 (1.67, about 56.3% after the margin). Both teams to score is shorter on Yes at 1.91.

Season points-per-game rates were not stored on this fixture yet. The odds chart still shows how the 1X2, goals, and both-teams markets are priced.

Guimaraes vs Nacional FAQs

4 questions

What time is Guimaraes vs Nacional?

Kickoff is 21:45 on 2 January 2026, shown in Africa/Lagos.

Which outcome is shortest on Guimaraes vs Nacional?

Guimaraes is the shortest 1X2 price at 1.85. The margin-adjusted share is about 50.7%.

What are the over and under 2.5 prices?

Over 2.5 is 2.15 and under 2.5 is 1.67.

Do both teams score on this match?

Both teams to score is priced at 1.91. That is a market price, not a forecast that both sides will score.