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Italy U21 vs Poland U21 Prediction, H2H, Stats & Betting Tips

World · UEFA U21 Championship - QualificationMon, 5 Oct 2026

Italy U21

Mon, 5 Oct 202617:15

6 : 2

Full time

Poland U21

Pre-match win probability

49.3%Italy U2126.1%Draw24.6%Poland U21

Our prediction

Over 1.5 · Italy U21

Italy U21 vs Poland U21 listed tip from the board.

Odds1.85
Confidence49.3%
ResultGraded
Pre-match model probabilityPick and odds as published before kick-off
  • Italy U21 49.3%
  • Draw 26.1%
  • Poland U21 24.6%

Season statistics

UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification · highlighted side is stronger

Italy U21Poland U21

Betting markets

Bookmaker prices with margin removed

Goal lineOverUnder
0.5 goals23.1% · 1.011.8% · 13
1.5 goals19.2% · 1.225.8% · 4
2.5 goals13.8% · 1.711.1% · 2.1
3.5 goals8.9% · 2.6216.2% · 1.44

Both teams to score

Yes55.7%
No44.3%

Double chance

1X61%
X239%

Match result

Italy U211.85
Draw3.5
Poland U213.7

Both teams to score

Yes55.7% · 1.67
No44.3% · 2.1

1X

Chance61%
Odds1.22

X2

Chance39%
Odds1.91

Italy U21

Chance49.3%
Odds1.85

Draw

Chance26.1%
Odds3.5

Poland U21

Chance24.6%
Odds3.7

No half-time prices stored.

No corner prices stored.

Model comparison

Our pick: Over 1.5 at 1.85

Italy U21Poland U21
Recent form50%50%
Attack50%50%
Defence50%50%
Goals model50%50%
Overall67%33%

Italy U21 vs Poland U21: prediction & preview

World · UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification · Mon, 5 Oct 2026

Italy U21 meet Poland U21 in the World, UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification on 5 October 2026 at 17:15 (Africa/Lagos). The recorded score is 6–2.

On the 1X2 market the shortest price is Italy U21 at 1.85. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, that outcome carries about 49.3% of the implied chance, with the other two outcomes sharing the rest. A short price means the market rates that side more likely. It is not a certainty, and the margin means the three raw probabilities add up to more than 100% before they are scaled.

The 2.5-goal line is priced shorter on Over 2.5 (1.7, about 55.3% after the margin). Both teams to score is shorter on Yes at 1.67.

Season points-per-game rates were not stored on this fixture yet. The odds chart still shows how the 1X2, goals, and both-teams markets are priced.

Italy U21 vs Poland U21 FAQs

4 questions

What time is Italy U21 vs Poland U21?

Kickoff is 17:15 on 5 October 2026, shown in Africa/Lagos.

Which outcome is shortest on Italy U21 vs Poland U21?

Italy U21 is the shortest 1X2 price at 1.85. The margin-adjusted share is about 49.3%.

What are the over and under 2.5 prices?

Over 2.5 is 1.7 and under 2.5 is 2.1.

Do both teams score on this match?

Both teams to score is priced at 1.67. That is a market price, not a forecast that both sides will score.

Italy U21 vs Poland U21 prediction, H2H and stats