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Lugo vs Mérida AD Prediction, H2H, Stats & Betting Tips

Spain · Primera División RFEF - Group 1Sat, 3 Jan 2026

Lugo

WDDLW

Sat, 3 Jan 202612:00

1 : 0

Full time

Mérida AD

LLWDW

Pre-match win probability

40.9%Lugo30%Draw29%Mérida AD

Our prediction

Home or Draw · Lugo

Lugo vs Mérida AD listed tip from the board.

Odds1.28
Confidence40.9%
ResultGraded
Pre-match model probabilityPick and odds as published before kick-off
  • Lugo 40.9%
  • Draw 30%
  • Mérida AD 29%

Season statistics

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · highlighted side is stronger

LugoMérida AD

Betting markets

Bookmaker prices with margin removed

Goal lineOverUnder
0.5 goals21.7% · 1.083.3% · 7
1.5 goals16.2% · 1.448.9% · 2.62
2.5 goals9.4% · 2.515.6% · 1.5
3.5 goals5.4% · 4.3319.5% · 1.2

Both teams to score

Yes44.3%
No55.7%

Double chance

1X54.8%
X245.2%

Match result

Lugo2.2
Draw3
Mérida AD3.1

Both teams to score

Yes44.3% · 2.1
No55.7% · 1.67

1X

Chance54.8%
Odds1.28

X2

Chance45.2%
Odds1.55

Lugo

Chance40.9%
Odds2.2

Draw

Chance30%
Odds3

Mérida AD

Chance29%
Odds3.1

No half-time prices stored.

No corner prices stored.

Model comparison

Our pick: Home or Draw at 1.28

LugoMérida AD
Recent form50%50%
Attack50%50%
Defence50%50%
Goals model50%50%
Overall59%41%

Lugo vs Mérida AD: prediction & preview

Spain · Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Sat, 3 Jan 2026

Lugo meet Mérida AD in the Spain, Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on 3 January 2026 at 12:00 (Africa/Lagos). The recorded score is 1–0.

On the 1X2 market the shortest price is Lugo at 2.2. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, that outcome carries about 40.9% of the implied chance, with the other two outcomes sharing the rest. A short price means the market rates that side more likely. It is not a certainty, and the margin means the three raw probabilities add up to more than 100% before they are scaled.

The 2.5-goal line is priced shorter on Under 2.5 (1.5, about 62.5% after the margin). Both teams to score is shorter on No at 1.67.

Season points-per-game rates were not stored on this fixture yet. The odds chart still shows how the 1X2, goals, and both-teams markets are priced.

Lugo vs Mérida AD FAQs

4 questions

What time is Lugo vs Mérida AD?

Kickoff is 12:00 on 3 January 2026, shown in Africa/Lagos.

Which outcome is shortest on Lugo vs Mérida AD?

Lugo is the shortest 1X2 price at 2.2. The margin-adjusted share is about 40.9%.

What are the over and under 2.5 prices?

Over 2.5 is 2.5 and under 2.5 is 1.5.

Do both teams score on this match?

Both teams to score is priced at 2.1. That is a market price, not a forecast that both sides will score.

Lugo vs Mérida AD prediction, H2H and stats