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Marseille vs Lyon Prediction, H2H, Stats & Betting Tips

France · Ligue 1Sun, 1 Mar 2026

Marseille

WLWLW

Sun, 1 Mar 202620:45

3 : 2

Full time

Lyon

LWWLL

Pre-match win probability

48.5%Marseille26.3%Draw25.2%Lyon

Our prediction

Over 2.5 · Marseille

Marseille vs Lyon listed tip from the board.

Odds1.91
Confidence48.5%
ResultGraded
Pre-match model probabilityPick and odds as published before kick-off
  • Marseille 48.5%
  • Draw 26.3%
  • Lyon 25.2%

Season statistics

Ligue 1 · 10 matches each · highlighted side is stronger

MarseilleLyon
Goals scored (avg)
1.51.6
Goals conceded (avg)Lower is better
1.91.3

Recent form

Last matches · newest first

Marseille3W 0D 7L in last 10
  • 25 OctMarseille4 – 3Le HavreW
  • 22 OctSturm Graz1 – 0MarseilleL
  • 18 OctAngers2 – 5MarseilleW
  • 15 OctMarseille0 – 1Olympiakos PiraeusL
  • 11 OctEstac Troyes0 – 2MarseilleW
Lyon5W 2D 3L in last 10
  • 26 OctParis Saint Germain2 – 0LyonL
  • 22 Oct1899 Hoffenheim3 – 0LyonL
  • 18 OctLyon2 – 1NiceW
  • 15 OctLyon3 – 2Crystal PalaceW
  • 9 OctLens2 – 1LyonL
H2H
Head to headMarseille 5W · 0D · Lyon 4W · 2.8 goals a game
  • 31 AugLyon1 – 0Marseille
  • 2 FebMarseille3 – 2Lyon
  • 22 SeptLyon2 – 3Marseille
  • 4 FebLyon1 – 0Marseille
  • 6 DecMarseille3 – 0Lyon
  • 23 AprLyon1 – 2Marseille

Betting markets

Bookmaker prices with margin removed

Goal lineOverUnder
0.5 goals22.8% · 1.052.2% · 11
1.5 goals18.7% · 1.286.4% · 3.75
2.5 goals12.5% · 1.9112.5% · 1.91
3.5 goals7.5% · 3.217.6% · 1.36

Both teams to score

Yes53.3%
No46.7%

Double chance

1X58.4%
X241.6%

Match result

Marseille1.95
Draw3.6
Lyon3.75

Both teams to score

Yes53.3% · 1.75
No46.7% · 2

1X

Chance58.4%
Odds1.28

X2

Chance41.6%
Odds1.8

Marseille

Chance48.5%
Odds1.95

Draw

Chance26.3%
Odds3.6

Lyon

Chance25.2%
Odds3.75

No half-time prices stored.

No corner prices stored.

Model comparison

Our pick: Over 2.5 at 1.91

MarseilleLyon
Recent form35%65%
Attack48%52%
Defence39%61%
Goals model48%52%
Head-to-head56%44%
Overall66%34%

Trends

Trend · Ligue 1

Marseille scored 1.5 per game in the last 10.

Trend · Ligue 1

Marseille conceded 1.9 per game in the last 10.

Trend · Ligue 1

Failed to score in 4 of those 10.

Trend · Ligue 1

Kept a clean sheet in 1 of those 10.

Marseille vs Lyon: prediction & preview

France · Ligue 1 · Sun, 1 Mar 2026

Marseille meet Lyon in the France, Ligue 1 on 1 March 2026 at 20:45 (Africa/Lagos). The recorded score is 3–2.

On the 1X2 market the shortest price is Marseille at 1.95. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, that outcome carries about 48.5% of the implied chance, with the other two outcomes sharing the rest. A short price means the market rates that side more likely. It is not a certainty, and the margin means the three raw probabilities add up to more than 100% before they are scaled.

The 2.5-goal line is priced shorter on Over 2.5 (1.91, about 50% after the margin). Both teams to score is shorter on Yes at 1.75.

Season points-per-game rates were not stored on this fixture yet. The odds chart still shows how the 1X2, goals, and both-teams markets are priced.

Marseille vs Lyon FAQs

4 questions

What time is Marseille vs Lyon?

Kickoff is 20:45 on 1 March 2026, shown in Africa/Lagos.

Which outcome is shortest on Marseille vs Lyon?

Marseille is the shortest 1X2 price at 1.95. The margin-adjusted share is about 48.5%.

What are the over and under 2.5 prices?

Over 2.5 is 1.91 and under 2.5 is 1.91.

Do both teams score on this match?

Both teams to score is priced at 1.75. That is a market price, not a forecast that both sides will score.