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Middlesbrough vs Derby Prediction, H2H, Stats & Betting Tips

England · ChampionshipSat, 29 Nov 2025

Middlesbrough

5th in table · 80 pts

DWWDW

Sat, 29 Nov 202516:00

vs

Not started

Derby

8th in table · 69 pts

Pre-match win probability

53.9%Middlesbrough26.2%Draw19.9%Derby

Our prediction

Middlesbrough

Middlesbrough is the shortest 1X2 price in the stored market.

Odds1.75
Confidence53.9%
ResultPending
Pre-match model probabilityPick and odds as published before kick-off
  • Middlesbrough 53.9%
  • Draw 26.2%
  • Derby 19.9%

Season statistics

Championship · 10 matches each · highlighted side is stronger

MiddlesbroughDerby
Goals scored (avg)
2.1–
Goals conceded (avg)Lower is better
1.6–
Wins
2220
Played
4646

Recent form

Last matches · newest first

Middlesbrough5W 4D 1L in last 10
  • 23 OctBolton1 – 5MiddlesbroughW
  • 17 OctMiddlesbrough2 – 2CardiffD
  • 13 OctStoke City2 – 3MiddlesbroughW
  • 10 OctMiddlesbrough1 – 0WolvesW
  • 19 SeptBirmingham2 – 2MiddlesbroughD
Derby0W 0D 0L in last 0
    H2H
    Head to headMiddlesbrough 3W · 2D · Derby 4W · 2.2 goals a game
    • 1 JanDerby1 – 0Middlesbrough
    • 1 MarMiddlesbrough1 – 0Derby
    • 17 AugDerby1 – 0Middlesbrough
    • 12 FebMiddlesbrough4 – 1Derby
    • 21 AugDerby0 – 0Middlesbrough
    • 13 FebDerby2 – 1Middlesbrough

    Betting markets

    Bookmaker prices with margin removed

    Goal lineOverUnder
    0.5 goals22.3% · 1.072.6% · 9
    1.5 goals17.5% · 1.367.4% · 3.2
    2.5 goals11.3% · 2.113.8% · 1.73
    3.5 goals6.4% · 3.7518.6% · 1.28

    Both teams to score

    Yes46.4%
    No53.6%

    Double chance

    1X62.9%
    X237.1%

    Match result

    Middlesbrough1.75
    Draw3.6
    Derby4.75

    Both teams to score

    Yes46.4% · 2
    No53.6% · 1.73

    1X

    Chance62.9%
    Odds1.18

    X2

    Chance37.1%
    Odds2

    Middlesbrough

    Chance53.9%
    Odds1.75

    Draw

    Chance26.2%
    Odds3.6

    Derby

    Chance19.9%
    Odds4.75

    No half-time prices stored.

    No corner prices stored.

    Model comparison

    Our pick: Middlesbrough at 1.75

    MiddlesbroughDerby
    Recent form95%5%
    Attack68%32%
    Defence58%42%
    Goals model68%32%
    Head-to-head44%56%
    Overall73%27%

    Trends

    Trend · Championship

    Middlesbrough scored 2.1 per game in the last 10.

    Trend · Championship

    Middlesbrough conceded 1.6 per game in the last 10.

    Trend · Championship

    Failed to score in 1 of those 10.

    Trend · Championship

    Kept a clean sheet in 2 of those 10.

    Middlesbrough vs Derby: prediction & preview

    England · Championship · Sat, 29 Nov 2025

    Middlesbrough meet Derby in the England, Championship on 29 November 2025 at 16:00 (Africa/Lagos). The numbers below are pre-match prices and team rates. They describe the match. They do not promise a result.

    On the 1X2 market the shortest price is Middlesbrough at 1.75. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, that outcome carries about 53.9% of the implied chance, with the other two outcomes sharing the rest. A short price means the market rates that side more likely. It is not a certainty, and the margin means the three raw probabilities add up to more than 100% before they are scaled.

    The 2.5-goal line is priced shorter on Under 2.5 (1.73, about 54.8% after the margin). Both teams to score is shorter on No at 1.73.

    Season points-per-game rates were not stored on this fixture yet. The odds chart still shows how the 1X2, goals, and both-teams markets are priced.

    Middlesbrough vs Derby FAQs

    4 questions

    What time is Middlesbrough vs Derby?

    Kickoff is 16:00 on 29 November 2025, shown in Africa/Lagos.

    Which outcome is shortest on Middlesbrough vs Derby?

    Middlesbrough is the shortest 1X2 price at 1.75. The margin-adjusted share is about 53.9%.

    What are the over and under 2.5 prices?

    Over 2.5 is 2.1 and under 2.5 is 1.73.

    Do both teams score on this match?

    Both teams to score is priced at 2. That is a market price, not a forecast that both sides will score.