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Nacional vs Alverca Prediction, H2H, Stats & Betting Tips

Portugal · Primeira LigaSat, 18 Apr 2026

Nacional

LLLLW

Sat, 18 Apr 202615:30

1 : 0

Full time

Alverca

WWWLL

Pre-match win probability

43%Nacional27.8%Draw29.1%Alverca

Our prediction

Nacional

Nacional is the shortest 1X2 price in the stored market.

Odds2.2
Confidence43%
ResultGraded
Pre-match model probabilityPick and odds as published before kick-off
  • Nacional 43%
  • Draw 27.8%
  • Alverca 29.1%

Season statistics

Primeira Liga · 10 matches each · highlighted side is stronger

NacionalAlverca
Goals scored (avg)
11.3
Goals conceded (avg)Lower is better
1.91.5

Recent form

Last matches · newest first

Nacional2W 1D 7L in last 10
  • 25 OctNacional1 – 0SC BragaW
  • 17 OctSanjoanense1 – 0NacionalL
  • 11 OctRio Ave3 – 2NacionalL
  • 19 SeptNacional0 – 4FamalicaoL
  • 12 SeptNacional1 – 3AlvercaL
Alverca3W 2D 5L in last 10
  • 24 OctAlverca0 – 1AroucaL
  • 18 OctTondela2 – 0AlvercaL
  • 12 OctFamalicao1 – 4AlvercaW
  • 19 SeptAlverca1 – 0Rio AveW
  • 12 SeptNacional1 – 3AlvercaW
H2H
Head to headNacional 0W · 0D · Alverca 2W · 2.5 goals a game
  • 12 SeptNacional1 – 3Alverca
  • 7 DecAlverca1 – 0Nacional

Betting markets

Bookmaker prices with margin removed

Goal lineOverUnder
0.5 goals22.6% · 1.052.2% · 11
1.5 goals18.9% · 1.256.3% · 3.75
2.5 goals12.8% · 1.8512.1% · 1.95
3.5 goals7.3% · 3.2517.8% · 1.33

Both teams to score

Yes54.7%
No45.3%

Double chance

1X55.1%
X244.9%

Match result

Nacional2.2
Draw3.4
Alverca3.25

Both teams to score

Yes54.7% · 1.7
No45.3% · 2.05

1X

Chance55.1%
Odds1.36

X2

Chance44.9%
Odds1.67

Nacional

Chance43%
Odds2.2

Draw

Chance27.8%
Odds3.4

Alverca

Chance29.1%
Odds3.25

No half-time prices stored.

No corner prices stored.

Model comparison

Our pick: Nacional at 2.2

NacionalAlverca
Recent form39%61%
Attack43%57%
Defence42%58%
Goals model43%57%
Head-to-head0%100%
Overall60%40%

Trends

Trend · Primeira Liga

Nacional scored 1 per game in the last 10.

Trend · Primeira Liga

Nacional conceded 1.9 per game in the last 10.

Trend · Primeira Liga

Failed to score in 4 of those 10.

Trend · Primeira Liga

Kept a clean sheet in 2 of those 10.

Nacional vs Alverca: prediction & preview

Portugal · Primeira Liga · Sat, 18 Apr 2026

Nacional meet Alverca in the Portugal, Primeira Liga on 18 April 2026 at 15:30 (Africa/Lagos). The recorded score is 1–0.

On the 1X2 market the shortest price is Nacional at 2.2. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, that outcome carries about 43% of the implied chance, with the other two outcomes sharing the rest. A short price means the market rates that side more likely. It is not a certainty, and the margin means the three raw probabilities add up to more than 100% before they are scaled.

The 2.5-goal line is priced shorter on Over 2.5 (1.85, about 51.3% after the margin). Both teams to score is shorter on Yes at 1.7.

Season points-per-game rates were not stored on this fixture yet. The odds chart still shows how the 1X2, goals, and both-teams markets are priced.

Nacional vs Alverca FAQs

4 questions

What time is Nacional vs Alverca?

Kickoff is 15:30 on 18 April 2026, shown in Africa/Lagos.

Which outcome is shortest on Nacional vs Alverca?

Nacional is the shortest 1X2 price at 2.2. The margin-adjusted share is about 43%.

What are the over and under 2.5 prices?

Over 2.5 is 1.85 and under 2.5 is 1.95.

Do both teams score on this match?

Both teams to score is priced at 1.7. That is a market price, not a forecast that both sides will score.