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Necaxa vs Toluca Prediction, H2H, Stats & Betting Tips

Mexico · Liga MXSun, 22 Feb 2026

Necaxa

Sun, 22 Feb 202602:00

0 : 3

Full time

Toluca

Pre-match win probability

18%Necaxa23.6%Draw58.4%Toluca

Our prediction

Toluca

Toluca is the shortest 1X2 price in the stored market.

Odds1.62
Confidence58.4%
ResultGraded
Pre-match model probabilityPick and odds as published before kick-off
  • Necaxa 18%
  • Draw 23.6%
  • Toluca 58.4%

Season statistics

Liga MX · highlighted side is stronger

NecaxaToluca

Recent form

Last matches · newest first

Necaxa0W 0D 0L in last 0
    Toluca0W 0D 0L in last 0
      H2H
      Head to headNecaxa 0W · 2D · Toluca 7W · 3.7 goals a game
      • 3 AugToluca3 – 1Necaxa
      • 13 JulToluca3 – 1Necaxa
      • 9 MarToluca5 – 2Necaxa
      • 28 OctNecaxa1 – 3Toluca
      • 11 FebNecaxa3 – 3Toluca
      • 2 JulToluca0 – 0Necaxa

      Betting markets

      Bookmaker prices with margin removed

      Goal lineOverUnder
      0.5 goals22.7% · 1.041.8% · 13
      1.5 goals19.3% · 1.225.9% · 4
      2.5 goals13.1% · 1.811.8% · 2
      3.5 goals8.6% · 2.7516.8% · 1.4

      Both teams to score

      Yes52%
      No48%

      Double chance

      1X34.2%
      X265.8%

      Match result

      Necaxa5.25
      Draw4
      Toluca1.62

      Both teams to score

      Yes52% · 1.8
      No48% · 1.95

      1X

      Chance34.2%
      Odds2.25

      X2

      Chance65.8%
      Odds1.17

      Necaxa

      Chance18%
      Odds5.25

      Draw

      Chance23.6%
      Odds4

      Toluca

      Chance58.4%
      Odds1.62

      No half-time prices stored.

      No corner prices stored.

      Model comparison

      Our pick: Toluca at 1.62

      NecaxaToluca
      Recent form50%50%
      Attack50%50%
      Defence50%50%
      Goals model50%50%
      Head-to-head11%89%
      Overall24%76%

      Necaxa vs Toluca: prediction & preview

      Mexico · Liga MX · Sun, 22 Feb 2026

      Necaxa meet Toluca in the Mexico, Liga MX on 22 February 2026 at 02:00 (Africa/Lagos). The recorded score is 0–3.

      On the 1X2 market the shortest price is Toluca at 1.62. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, that outcome carries about 58.4% of the implied chance, with the other two outcomes sharing the rest. A short price means the market rates that side more likely. It is not a certainty, and the margin means the three raw probabilities add up to more than 100% before they are scaled.

      The 2.5-goal line is priced shorter on Over 2.5 (1.8, about 52.6% after the margin). Both teams to score is shorter on Yes at 1.8.

      Season points-per-game rates were not stored on this fixture yet. The odds chart still shows how the 1X2, goals, and both-teams markets are priced.

      Necaxa vs Toluca FAQs

      4 questions

      What time is Necaxa vs Toluca?

      Kickoff is 02:00 on 22 February 2026, shown in Africa/Lagos.

      Which outcome is shortest on Necaxa vs Toluca?

      Toluca is the shortest 1X2 price at 1.62. The margin-adjusted share is about 58.4%.

      What are the over and under 2.5 prices?

      Over 2.5 is 1.8 and under 2.5 is 2.

      Do both teams score on this match?

      Both teams to score is priced at 1.8. That is a market price, not a forecast that both sides will score.

      Necaxa vs Toluca prediction, H2H and stats