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Penarol vs Defensor Sporting Prediction, H2H, Stats & Betting Tips

Uruguay · Primera DivisiónMon, 4 May 2026

Penarol

Mon, 4 May 202623:30

1 : 0

Live

Defensor Sporting

Pre-match win probability

51.9%Penarol28.1%Draw20%Defensor Sporting

Our prediction

Penarol

Penarol is the shortest 1X2 price in the stored market.

Odds1.73
Confidence51.9%
ResultGraded
Pre-match model probabilityPick and odds as published before kick-off
  • Penarol 51.9%
  • Draw 28.1%
  • Defensor Sporting 20%

Season statistics

Primera División · highlighted side is stronger

PenarolDefensor Sporting

Recent form

Last matches · newest first

Penarol0W 0D 0L in last 0
    Defensor Sporting0W 0D 0L in last 0
      H2H
      Head to headNo previous meetings found between these sides.

      Betting markets

      Bookmaker prices with margin removed

      Goal lineOverUnder
      0.5 goals21.8% · 1.082.9% · 8
      1.5 goals17.3% · 1.367.8% · 3
      2.5 goals10.5% · 2.2514.5% · 1.62
      3.5 goals5.9% · 419.3% · 1.22

      Both teams to score

      Yes44.3%
      No55.7%

      Double chance

      1X60.8%
      X239.2%

      Match result

      Penarol1.73
      Draw3.2
      Defensor Sporting4.5

      Both teams to score

      Yes44.3% · 2.1
      No55.7% · 1.67

      1X

      Chance60.8%
      Odds1.18

      X2

      Chance39.2%
      Odds1.83

      Penarol

      Chance51.9%
      Odds1.73

      Draw

      Chance28.1%
      Odds3.2

      Defensor Sporting

      Chance20%
      Odds4.5

      No half-time prices stored.

      No corner prices stored.

      Model comparison

      Our pick: Penarol at 1.73

      PenarolDefensor Sporting
      Recent form50%50%
      Attack50%50%
      Defence50%50%
      Goals model50%50%
      Overall72%28%

      Penarol vs Defensor Sporting: prediction & preview

      Uruguay · Primera División · Mon, 4 May 2026

      Penarol meet Defensor Sporting in the Uruguay, Primera División on 4 May 2026 at 23:30 (Africa/Lagos). The recorded score is 1–0.

      On the 1X2 market the shortest price is Penarol at 1.73. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, that outcome carries about 51.9% of the implied chance, with the other two outcomes sharing the rest. A short price means the market rates that side more likely. It is not a certainty, and the margin means the three raw probabilities add up to more than 100% before they are scaled.

      The 2.5-goal line is priced shorter on Under 2.5 (1.62, about 58.1% after the margin). Both teams to score is shorter on No at 1.67.

      Season points-per-game rates were not stored on this fixture yet. The odds chart still shows how the 1X2, goals, and both-teams markets are priced.

      Penarol vs Defensor Sporting FAQs

      4 questions

      What time is Penarol vs Defensor Sporting?

      Kickoff is 23:30 on 4 May 2026, shown in Africa/Lagos.

      Which outcome is shortest on Penarol vs Defensor Sporting?

      Penarol is the shortest 1X2 price at 1.73. The margin-adjusted share is about 51.9%.

      What are the over and under 2.5 prices?

      Over 2.5 is 2.25 and under 2.5 is 1.62.

      Do both teams score on this match?

      Both teams to score is priced at 2.1. That is a market price, not a forecast that both sides will score.

      Penarol vs Defensor Sporting prediction, H2H and stats