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Progreso vs Cerro Prediction, H2H, Stats & Betting Tips

Uruguay · Primera DivisiónSun, 13 Sept 2026

Progreso

15th in table · 35 pts

WLDWW

Sun, 13 Sept 202614:00

1 : 3

Full time

Cerro

13th in table · 37 pts

DLWDL

Pre-match win probability

38.2%Progreso30.9%Draw30.9%Cerro

Our prediction

Home or Draw · Progreso

Progreso vs Cerro listed tip from the board.

Odds1.33
Confidence38.2%
ResultGraded
Pre-match model probabilityPick and odds as published before kick-off
  • Progreso 38.2%
  • Draw 30.9%
  • Cerro 30.9%

Season statistics

Primera División · 9 matches each · highlighted side is stronger

ProgresoCerro
Goals scored (avg)
1.30.9
Goals conceded (avg)Lower is better
11.6
Wins
1010
Played
3434

Recent form

Last matches · newest first

Progreso5W 1D 3L in last 9
  • 25 OctWanderers0 – 1ProgresoW
  • 17 OctProgreso2 – 0JuventudW
  • 10 OctPenarol1 – 1ProgresoD
  • 3 OctLiverpool Montevideo3 – 2ProgresoL
  • 26 SeptProgreso2 – 1Racing MontevideoW
Cerro2W 2D 5L in last 9
  • 25 OctAtletico Torque3 – 1CerroL
  • 16 OctCerro1 – 1Cerro LargoD
  • 10 OctDefensor Sporting2 – 3CerroW
  • 4 OctCerro0 – 2WanderersL
  • 27 SeptJuventud0 – 0CerroD
H2H
Head to headProgreso 4W · 3D · Cerro 2W · 1.8 goals a game
  • 14 MarCerro0 – 1Progreso
  • 5 OctProgreso2 – 0Cerro
  • 6 AprCerro0 – 0Progreso
  • 14 SeptProgreso0 – 1Cerro
  • 1 MarCerro2 – 3Progreso
  • 10 SeptCerro1 – 1Progreso

Betting markets

Bookmaker prices with margin removed

Goal lineOverUnder
0.5 goals21.4% · 1.13.4% · 7
1.5 goals16.3% · 1.449% · 2.62
2.5 goals9.4% · 2.515.7% · 1.5
3.5 goals4.7% · 520.1% · 1.17

Both teams to score

Yes44.3%
No55.7%

Double chance

1X53.5%
X246.5%

Match result

Progreso2.35
Draw2.9
Cerro2.9

Both teams to score

Yes44.3% · 2.1
No55.7% · 1.67

1X

Chance53.5%
Odds1.33

X2

Chance46.5%
Odds1.53

Progreso

Chance38.2%
Odds2.35

Draw

Chance30.9%
Odds2.9

Cerro

Chance30.9%
Odds2.9

No half-time prices stored.

No corner prices stored.

Model comparison

Our pick: Home or Draw at 1.33

ProgresoCerro
Recent form67%33%
Attack59%41%
Defence59%41%
Goals model59%41%
Head-to-head61%39%
Overall55%45%

Trends

Trend · Primera División

Progreso scored 1.3 per game in the last 9.

Trend · Primera División

Progreso conceded 1 per game in the last 9.

Trend · Primera División

Failed to score in 1 of those 9.

Trend · Primera División

Kept a clean sheet in 3 of those 9.

Progreso vs Cerro: prediction & preview

Uruguay · Primera División · Sun, 13 Sept 2026

Progreso meet Cerro in the Uruguay, Primera División on 13 September 2026 at 14:00 (Africa/Lagos). The recorded score is 1–3.

On the 1X2 market the shortest price is Progreso at 2.35. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, that outcome carries about 38.2% of the implied chance, with the other two outcomes sharing the rest. A short price means the market rates that side more likely. It is not a certainty, and the margin means the three raw probabilities add up to more than 100% before they are scaled.

The 2.5-goal line is priced shorter on Under 2.5 (1.5, about 62.5% after the margin). Both teams to score is shorter on No at 1.67.

Season points-per-game rates were not stored on this fixture yet. The odds chart still shows how the 1X2, goals, and both-teams markets are priced.

Progreso vs Cerro FAQs

4 questions

What time is Progreso vs Cerro?

Kickoff is 14:00 on 13 September 2026, shown in Africa/Lagos.

Which outcome is shortest on Progreso vs Cerro?

Progreso is the shortest 1X2 price at 2.35. The margin-adjusted share is about 38.2%.

What are the over and under 2.5 prices?

Over 2.5 is 2.5 and under 2.5 is 1.5.

Do both teams score on this match?

Both teams to score is priced at 2.1. That is a market price, not a forecast that both sides will score.