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Progreso vs Penarol Prediction, H2H, Stats & Betting Tips

Uruguay · Primera DivisiónSat, 4 Apr 2026

Progreso

15th in table · 35 pts

WLDWW

Sat, 4 Apr 202623:00

0 : 2

Live

Penarol

1st in table · 64 pts

WDLDL

Pre-match win probability

12.7%Progreso22.8%Draw64.5%Penarol

Our prediction

Away or Draw · Progreso

Progreso vs Penarol listed tip from the board.

Odds1.08
Confidence64.5%
ResultGraded
Pre-match model probabilityPick and odds as published before kick-off
  • Progreso 12.7%
  • Draw 22.8%
  • Penarol 64.5%

Season statistics

Primera División · 10 matches each · highlighted side is stronger

ProgresoPenarol
Goals scored (avg)
1.31.1
Goals conceded (avg)Lower is better
1.20.9
Wins
1019
Played
3434

Recent form

Last matches · newest first

Progreso5W 1D 4L in last 10
  • 25 OctWanderers0 – 1ProgresoW
  • 17 OctProgreso2 – 0JuventudW
  • 10 OctPenarol1 – 1ProgresoD
  • 3 OctLiverpool Montevideo3 – 2ProgresoL
  • 26 SeptProgreso2 – 1Racing MontevideoW
Penarol4W 4D 2L in last 10
  • 27 OctPenarol0 – 2Atletico TorqueL
  • 24 OctJuventud0 – 0PenarolD
  • 18 OctLiverpool Montevideo1 – 0PenarolL
  • 10 OctPenarol1 – 1ProgresoD
  • 4 OctRacing Montevideo0 – 1PenarolW
H2H
Head to headProgreso 0W · 2D · Penarol 7W · 2.7 goals a game
  • 10 OctPenarol1 – 1Progreso
  • 2 AugPenarol2 – 1Progreso
  • 2 FebProgreso1 – 3Penarol
  • 27 NovProgreso1 – 5Penarol
  • 22 JunProgreso0 – 2Penarol
  • 24 MayPenarol3 – 1Progreso

Betting markets

Bookmaker prices with margin removed

Goal lineOverUnder
0.5 goals22.6% · 1.052.2% · 11
1.5 goals18.5% · 1.286.8% · 3.5
2.5 goals12.1% · 1.9512.8% · 1.85
3.5 goals7.3% · 3.2517.8% · 1.33

Both teams to score

Yes42.4%
No57.6%

Double chance

1X28.2%
X271.8%

Match result

Progreso7
Draw3.9
Penarol1.38

Both teams to score

Yes42.4% · 2.2
No57.6% · 1.62

1X

Chance28.2%
Odds2.75

X2

Chance71.8%
Odds1.08

Progreso

Chance12.7%
Odds7

Draw

Chance22.8%
Odds3.9

Penarol

Chance64.5%
Odds1.38

No half-time prices stored.

No corner prices stored.

Model comparison

Our pick: Away or Draw at 1.08

ProgresoPenarol
Recent form50%50%
Attack54%46%
Defence46%54%
Goals model54%46%
Head-to-head11%89%
Overall16%84%

Trends

Trend · Primera División

Progreso scored 1.3 per game in the last 10.

Trend · Primera División

Progreso conceded 1.2 per game in the last 10.

Trend · Primera División

Failed to score in 1 of those 10.

Trend · Primera División

Kept a clean sheet in 3 of those 10.

Progreso vs Penarol: prediction & preview

Uruguay · Primera División · Sat, 4 Apr 2026

Progreso meet Penarol in the Uruguay, Primera División on 4 April 2026 at 23:00 (Africa/Lagos). The recorded score is 0–2.

On the 1X2 market the shortest price is Penarol at 1.38. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, that outcome carries about 64.5% of the implied chance, with the other two outcomes sharing the rest. A short price means the market rates that side more likely. It is not a certainty, and the margin means the three raw probabilities add up to more than 100% before they are scaled.

The 2.5-goal line is priced shorter on Under 2.5 (1.85, about 51.3% after the margin). Both teams to score is shorter on No at 1.62.

Season points-per-game rates were not stored on this fixture yet. The odds chart still shows how the 1X2, goals, and both-teams markets are priced.

Progreso vs Penarol FAQs

4 questions

What time is Progreso vs Penarol?

Kickoff is 23:00 on 4 April 2026, shown in Africa/Lagos.

Which outcome is shortest on Progreso vs Penarol?

Penarol is the shortest 1X2 price at 1.38. The margin-adjusted share is about 64.5%.

What are the over and under 2.5 prices?

Over 2.5 is 1.95 and under 2.5 is 1.85.

Do both teams score on this match?

Both teams to score is priced at 2.2. That is a market price, not a forecast that both sides will score.