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Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid Prediction, H2H, Stats & Betting Tips

Spain · La LigaSun, 4 Jan 2026

Real Sociedad

DWLLW

Sun, 4 Jan 202621:00

1 : 1

Full time

Atletico Madrid

WWWWL

Pre-match win probability

25.5%Real Sociedad25.1%Draw49.4%Atletico Madrid

Our prediction

Away · Real Sociedad

Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid listed tip from the board.

Odds1.91
Confidence49.4%
ResultGraded
Pre-match model probabilityPick and odds as published before kick-off
  • Real Sociedad 25.5%
  • Draw 25.1%
  • Atletico Madrid 49.4%

Season statistics

La Liga · highlighted side is stronger

Real SociedadAtletico Madrid

Betting markets

Bookmaker prices with margin removed

Goal lineOverUnder
0.5 goals22.7% · 1.052.2% · 11
1.5 goals19.1% · 1.256% · 4
2.5 goals13.2% · 1.811.9% · 2
3.5 goals7.4% · 3.217.5% · 1.36

Both teams to score

Yes54.7%
No45.3%

Double chance

1X41.2%
X258.8%

Match result

Real Sociedad3.7
Draw3.75
Atletico Madrid1.91

Both teams to score

Yes54.7% · 1.7
No45.3% · 2.05

1X

Chance41.2%
Odds1.83

X2

Chance58.8%
Odds1.28

Real Sociedad

Chance25.5%
Odds3.7

Draw

Chance25.1%
Odds3.75

Atletico Madrid

Chance49.4%
Odds1.91

No half-time prices stored.

No corner prices stored.

Model comparison

Our pick: Away at 1.91

Real SociedadAtletico Madrid
Recent form50%50%
Attack50%50%
Defence50%50%
Goals model50%50%
Overall34%66%

Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid: prediction & preview

Spain · La Liga · Sun, 4 Jan 2026

Real Sociedad meet Atletico Madrid in the Spain, La Liga on 4 January 2026 at 21:00 (Africa/Lagos). The recorded score is 1–1.

On the 1X2 market the shortest price is Atletico Madrid at 1.91. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, that outcome carries about 49.4% of the implied chance, with the other two outcomes sharing the rest. A short price means the market rates that side more likely. It is not a certainty, and the margin means the three raw probabilities add up to more than 100% before they are scaled.

The 2.5-goal line is priced shorter on Over 2.5 (1.8, about 52.6% after the margin). Both teams to score is shorter on Yes at 1.7.

Season points-per-game rates were not stored on this fixture yet. The odds chart still shows how the 1X2, goals, and both-teams markets are priced.

Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid FAQs

4 questions

What time is Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid?

Kickoff is 21:00 on 4 January 2026, shown in Africa/Lagos.

Which outcome is shortest on Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid?

Atletico Madrid is the shortest 1X2 price at 1.91. The margin-adjusted share is about 49.4%.

What are the over and under 2.5 prices?

Over 2.5 is 1.8 and under 2.5 is 2.

Do both teams score on this match?

Both teams to score is priced at 1.7. That is a market price, not a forecast that both sides will score.

Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid prediction, H2H and stats