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South Melbourne vs Adelaide United Prediction, H2H, Stats & Betting Tips

Australia · Australia CupThu, 30 Jul 2026

South Melbourne

Thu, 30 Jul 202610:30

2 : 1

Full time

Adelaide United

Pre-match win probability

30.2%South Melbourne24%Draw45.7%Adelaide United

Our prediction

Adelaide United

Adelaide United is the shortest 1X2 price in the stored market.

Odds2.05
Confidence45.7%
ResultGraded
Pre-match model probabilityPick and odds as published before kick-off
  • South Melbourne 30.2%
  • Draw 24%
  • Adelaide United 45.7%

Season statistics

Australia Cup · highlighted side is stronger

South MelbourneAdelaide United

Betting markets

Bookmaker prices with margin removed

Goal lineOverUnder
0.5 goals0%1.8% · 17
1.5 goals26.1% · 1.176.8% · 4.5
2.5 goals19.5% · 1.5713% · 2.35
3.5 goals12.8% · 2.3820% · 1.53

Both teams to score

Yes60.9%
No39.1%

Double chance

1X44%
X256%

Match result

South Melbourne3.1
Draw3.9
Adelaide United2.05

Both teams to score

Yes60.9% · 1.53
No39.1% · 2.38

1X

Chance44%
Odds1.73

X2

Chance56%
Odds1.36

South Melbourne

Chance30.2%
Odds3.1

Draw

Chance24%
Odds3.9

Adelaide United

Chance45.7%
Odds2.05

No half-time prices stored.

No corner prices stored.

Model comparison

Our pick: Adelaide United at 2.05

South MelbourneAdelaide United
Recent form50%50%
Attack50%50%
Defence50%50%
Goals model50%50%
Overall40%60%

South Melbourne vs Adelaide United: prediction & preview

Australia · Australia Cup · Thu, 30 Jul 2026

South Melbourne meet Adelaide United in the Australia, Australia Cup on 30 July 2026 at 10:30 (Africa/Lagos). The recorded score is 2–1.

On the 1X2 market the shortest price is Adelaide United at 2.05. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, that outcome carries about 45.7% of the implied chance, with the other two outcomes sharing the rest. A short price means the market rates that side more likely. It is not a certainty, and the margin means the three raw probabilities add up to more than 100% before they are scaled.

The 2.5-goal line is priced shorter on Over 2.5 (1.57, about 59.9% after the margin). Both teams to score is shorter on Yes at 1.53.

Season points-per-game rates were not stored on this fixture yet. The odds chart still shows how the 1X2, goals, and both-teams markets are priced.

South Melbourne vs Adelaide United FAQs

4 questions

What time is South Melbourne vs Adelaide United?

Kickoff is 10:30 on 30 July 2026, shown in Africa/Lagos.

Which outcome is shortest on South Melbourne vs Adelaide United?

Adelaide United is the shortest 1X2 price at 2.05. The margin-adjusted share is about 45.7%.

What are the over and under 2.5 prices?

Over 2.5 is 1.57 and under 2.5 is 2.35.

Do both teams score on this match?

Both teams to score is priced at 1.53. That is a market price, not a forecast that both sides will score.

South Melbourne vs Adelaide United prediction, H2H and stats