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South Melbourne vs Melbourne Victory Prediction, H2H, Stats & Betting Tips

Australia · Australia CupSat, 10 Oct 2026

South Melbourne

Sat, 10 Oct 202609:35

1 : 1

Full time

Melbourne Victory

Pre-match win probability

21.1%South Melbourne25.3%Draw53.6%Melbourne Victory

Our prediction

Melbourne Victory

Melbourne Victory is the shortest 1X2 price in the stored market.

Odds1.7
Confidence53.6%
ResultGraded
Pre-match model probabilityPick and odds as published before kick-off
  • South Melbourne 21.1%
  • Draw 25.3%
  • Melbourne Victory 53.6%

Season statistics

Australia Cup · highlighted side is stronger

South MelbourneMelbourne Victory

Betting markets

Bookmaker prices with margin removed

Goal lineOverUnder
0.5 goals22.5% · 1.042.6% · 9
1.5 goals19.1% · 1.225.8% · 4
2.5 goals13.7% · 1.711.1% · 2.1
3.5 goals8.9% · 2.6216.2% · 1.44

Both teams to score

Yes55.7%
No44.3%

Double chance

1X36.9%
X263.1%

Match result

South Melbourne4.33
Draw3.6
Melbourne Victory1.7

Both teams to score

Yes55.7% · 1.67
No44.3% · 2.1

1X

Chance36.9%
Odds1.95

X2

Chance63.1%
Odds1.14

South Melbourne

Chance21.1%
Odds4.33

Draw

Chance25.3%
Odds3.6

Melbourne Victory

Chance53.6%
Odds1.7

No half-time prices stored.

No corner prices stored.

Model comparison

Our pick: Melbourne Victory at 1.7

South MelbourneMelbourne Victory
Recent form50%50%
Attack50%50%
Defence50%50%
Goals model50%50%
Overall28%72%

South Melbourne vs Melbourne Victory: prediction & preview

Australia · Australia Cup · Sat, 10 Oct 2026

South Melbourne meet Melbourne Victory in the Australia, Australia Cup on 10 October 2026 at 09:35 (Africa/Lagos). The recorded score is 1–1.

On the 1X2 market the shortest price is Melbourne Victory at 1.7. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, that outcome carries about 53.6% of the implied chance, with the other two outcomes sharing the rest. A short price means the market rates that side more likely. It is not a certainty, and the margin means the three raw probabilities add up to more than 100% before they are scaled.

The 2.5-goal line is priced shorter on Over 2.5 (1.7, about 55.3% after the margin). Both teams to score is shorter on Yes at 1.67.

Season points-per-game rates were not stored on this fixture yet. The odds chart still shows how the 1X2, goals, and both-teams markets are priced.

South Melbourne vs Melbourne Victory FAQs

4 questions

What time is South Melbourne vs Melbourne Victory?

Kickoff is 09:35 on 10 October 2026, shown in Africa/Lagos.

Which outcome is shortest on South Melbourne vs Melbourne Victory?

Melbourne Victory is the shortest 1X2 price at 1.7. The margin-adjusted share is about 53.6%.

What are the over and under 2.5 prices?

Over 2.5 is 1.7 and under 2.5 is 2.1.

Do both teams score on this match?

Both teams to score is priced at 1.67. That is a market price, not a forecast that both sides will score.

South Melbourne vs Melbourne Victory prediction, H2H and stats