Get Premium

Southampton vs Derby Prediction, H2H, Stats & Betting Tips

England · ChampionshipSat, 11 Apr 2026

Southampton

WWWWW

Sat, 11 Apr 202615:00

2 : 1

Full time

Derby

WLWWL

Pre-match win probability

56.5%Southampton23.9%Draw19.6%Derby

Our prediction

Home · Southampton

Southampton vs Derby listed tip from the board.

Odds1.65
Confidence56.5%
ResultGraded
Pre-match model probabilityPick and odds as published before kick-off
  • Southampton 56.5%
  • Draw 23.9%
  • Derby 19.6%

Season statistics

Championship · highlighted side is stronger

SouthamptonDerby

Betting markets

Bookmaker prices with margin removed

Goal lineOverUnder
0.5 goals22.7% · 1.052.2% · 11
1.5 goals19.1% · 1.256% · 4
2.5 goals13.8% · 1.7311.4% · 2.1
3.5 goals7.9% · 317% · 1.4

Both teams to score

Yes51.5%
No48.5%

Double chance

1X65.1%
X234.9%

Match result

Southampton1.65
Draw3.9
Derby4.75

Both teams to score

Yes51.5% · 1.8
No48.5% · 1.91

1X

Chance65.1%
Odds1.18

X2

Chance34.9%
Odds2.2

Southampton

Chance56.5%
Odds1.65

Draw

Chance23.9%
Odds3.9

Derby

Chance19.6%
Odds4.75

No half-time prices stored.

No corner prices stored.

Model comparison

Our pick: Home at 1.65

SouthamptonDerby
Recent form50%50%
Attack50%50%
Defence50%50%
Goals model50%50%
Overall74%26%

Southampton vs Derby: prediction & preview

England · Championship · Sat, 11 Apr 2026

Southampton meet Derby in the England, Championship on 11 April 2026 at 15:00 (Africa/Lagos). The recorded score is 2–1.

On the 1X2 market the shortest price is Southampton at 1.65. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, that outcome carries about 56.5% of the implied chance, with the other two outcomes sharing the rest. A short price means the market rates that side more likely. It is not a certainty, and the margin means the three raw probabilities add up to more than 100% before they are scaled.

The 2.5-goal line is priced shorter on Over 2.5 (1.73, about 54.8% after the margin). Both teams to score is shorter on Yes at 1.8.

Season points-per-game rates were not stored on this fixture yet. The odds chart still shows how the 1X2, goals, and both-teams markets are priced.

Southampton vs Derby FAQs

4 questions

What time is Southampton vs Derby?

Kickoff is 15:00 on 11 April 2026, shown in Africa/Lagos.

Which outcome is shortest on Southampton vs Derby?

Southampton is the shortest 1X2 price at 1.65. The margin-adjusted share is about 56.5%.

What are the over and under 2.5 prices?

Over 2.5 is 1.73 and under 2.5 is 2.1.

Do both teams score on this match?

Both teams to score is priced at 1.8. That is a market price, not a forecast that both sides will score.

Southampton vs Derby prediction, H2H and stats