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Toluca vs Leon Prediction, H2H, Stats & Betting Tips

Mexico · Liga MXSun, 26 Apr 2026

Toluca

Sun, 26 Apr 202602:05

4 : 1

Full time

Leon

Pre-match win probability

58.4%Toluca23.6%Draw18%Leon

Our prediction

Toluca

Toluca is the shortest 1X2 price in the stored market.

Odds1.62
Confidence58.4%
ResultGraded
Pre-match model probabilityPick and odds as published before kick-off
  • Toluca 58.4%
  • Draw 23.6%
  • Leon 18%

Season statistics

Liga MX · highlighted side is stronger

TolucaLeon

Betting markets

Bookmaker prices with margin removed

Goal lineOverUnder
0.5 goals23.1% · 1.021.4% · 17
1.5 goals20.7% · 1.144.3% · 5.5
2.5 goals15.7% · 1.59.4% · 2.5
3.5 goals10.7% · 2.214.6% · 1.62

Both teams to score

Yes60.9%
No39.1%

Double chance

1X65.8%
X234.2%

Match result

Toluca1.62
Draw4
Leon5.25

Both teams to score

Yes60.9% · 1.53
No39.1% · 2.38

1X

Chance65.8%
Odds1.17

X2

Chance34.2%
Odds2.25

Toluca

Chance58.4%
Odds1.62

Draw

Chance23.6%
Odds4

Leon

Chance18%
Odds5.25

No half-time prices stored.

No corner prices stored.

Model comparison

Our pick: Toluca at 1.62

TolucaLeon
Recent form50%50%
Attack50%50%
Defence50%50%
Goals model50%50%
Overall76%24%

Toluca vs Leon: prediction & preview

Mexico · Liga MX · Sun, 26 Apr 2026

Toluca meet Leon in the Mexico, Liga MX on 26 April 2026 at 02:05 (Africa/Lagos). The recorded score is 4–1.

On the 1X2 market the shortest price is Toluca at 1.62. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, that outcome carries about 58.4% of the implied chance, with the other two outcomes sharing the rest. A short price means the market rates that side more likely. It is not a certainty, and the margin means the three raw probabilities add up to more than 100% before they are scaled.

The 2.5-goal line is priced shorter on Over 2.5 (1.5, about 62.5% after the margin). Both teams to score is shorter on Yes at 1.53.

Season points-per-game rates were not stored on this fixture yet. The odds chart still shows how the 1X2, goals, and both-teams markets are priced.

Toluca vs Leon FAQs

4 questions

What time is Toluca vs Leon?

Kickoff is 02:05 on 26 April 2026, shown in Africa/Lagos.

Which outcome is shortest on Toluca vs Leon?

Toluca is the shortest 1X2 price at 1.62. The margin-adjusted share is about 58.4%.

What are the over and under 2.5 prices?

Over 2.5 is 1.5 and under 2.5 is 2.5.

Do both teams score on this match?

Both teams to score is priced at 1.53. That is a market price, not a forecast that both sides will score.

Toluca vs Leon prediction, H2H and stats