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Toluca vs Necaxa Prediction, H2H, Stats & Betting Tips

Mexico · Liga MXMon, 3 Aug 2026

Toluca

Mon, 3 Aug 202602:10

3 : 1

Full time

Necaxa

Pre-match win probability

62.7%Toluca20.9%Draw16.4%Necaxa

Our prediction

Toluca

Toluca is the shortest 1X2 price in the stored market.

Odds1.5
Confidence62.7%
ResultGraded
Pre-match model probabilityPick and odds as published before kick-off
  • Toluca 62.7%
  • Draw 20.9%
  • Necaxa 16.4%

Season statistics

Liga MX · highlighted side is stronger

TolucaNecaxa

Betting markets

Bookmaker prices with margin removed

Goal lineOverUnder
0.5 goals23.2% · 1.021.2% · 19
1.5 goals20.8% · 1.144.3% · 5.5
2.5 goals16% · 1.489.1% · 2.6
3.5 goals11.3% · 2.114.2% · 1.67

Both teams to score

Yes57.6%
No42.4%

Double chance

1X70.1%
X229.9%

Match result

Toluca1.5
Draw4.5
Necaxa5.75

Both teams to score

Yes57.6% · 1.62
No42.4% · 2.2

1X

Chance70.1%
Odds1.12

X2

Chance29.9%
Odds2.62

Toluca

Chance62.7%
Odds1.5

Draw

Chance20.9%
Odds4.5

Necaxa

Chance16.4%
Odds5.75

No half-time prices stored.

No corner prices stored.

Model comparison

Our pick: Toluca at 1.5

TolucaNecaxa
Recent form50%50%
Attack50%50%
Defence50%50%
Goals model50%50%
Overall79%21%

Toluca vs Necaxa: prediction & preview

Mexico · Liga MX · Mon, 3 Aug 2026

Toluca meet Necaxa in the Mexico, Liga MX on 3 August 2026 at 02:10 (Africa/Lagos). The recorded score is 3–1.

On the 1X2 market the shortest price is Toluca at 1.5. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, that outcome carries about 62.7% of the implied chance, with the other two outcomes sharing the rest. A short price means the market rates that side more likely. It is not a certainty, and the margin means the three raw probabilities add up to more than 100% before they are scaled.

The 2.5-goal line is priced shorter on Over 2.5 (1.48, about 63.7% after the margin). Both teams to score is shorter on Yes at 1.62.

Season points-per-game rates were not stored on this fixture yet. The odds chart still shows how the 1X2, goals, and both-teams markets are priced.

Toluca vs Necaxa FAQs

4 questions

What time is Toluca vs Necaxa?

Kickoff is 02:10 on 3 August 2026, shown in Africa/Lagos.

Which outcome is shortest on Toluca vs Necaxa?

Toluca is the shortest 1X2 price at 1.5. The margin-adjusted share is about 62.7%.

What are the over and under 2.5 prices?

Over 2.5 is 1.48 and under 2.5 is 2.6.

Do both teams score on this match?

Both teams to score is priced at 1.62. That is a market price, not a forecast that both sides will score.