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Tondela vs Arouca Prediction, H2H, Stats & Betting Tips

Portugal · Primeira LigaSat, 3 Jan 2026

Tondela

LLLWD

Sat, 3 Jan 202616:30

3 : 1

Full time

Arouca

DDWLL

Pre-match win probability

50.4%Tondela27.4%Draw22.2%Arouca

Our prediction

Away or Draw · Tondela

Tondela vs Arouca listed tip from the board.

Odds1.67
Confidence50.4%
ResultGraded
Pre-match model probabilityPick and odds as published before kick-off
  • Tondela 50.4%
  • Draw 27.4%
  • Arouca 22.2%

Season statistics

Primeira Liga · highlighted side is stronger

TondelaArouca

Betting markets

Bookmaker prices with margin removed

Goal lineOverUnder
0.5 goals22.1% · 1.072.6% · 9
1.5 goals17.8% · 1.337.3% · 3.25
2.5 goals11.5% · 2.0513.5% · 1.75
3.5 goals6.8% · 3.518.5% · 1.28

Both teams to score

Yes52%
No48%

Double chance

1X56.2%
X243.8%

Match result

Tondela1.85
Draw3.4
Arouca4.2

Both teams to score

Yes52% · 1.8
No48% · 1.95

1X

Chance56.2%
Odds1.3

X2

Chance43.8%
Odds1.67

Tondela

Chance50.4%
Odds1.85

Draw

Chance27.4%
Odds3.4

Arouca

Chance22.2%
Odds4.2

No half-time prices stored.

No corner prices stored.

Model comparison

Our pick: Away or Draw at 1.67

TondelaArouca
Recent form50%50%
Attack50%50%
Defence50%50%
Goals model50%50%
Overall69%31%

Tondela vs Arouca: prediction & preview

Portugal · Primeira Liga · Sat, 3 Jan 2026

Tondela meet Arouca in the Portugal, Primeira Liga on 3 January 2026 at 16:30 (Africa/Lagos). The recorded score is 3–1.

On the 1X2 market the shortest price is Tondela at 1.85. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, that outcome carries about 50.4% of the implied chance, with the other two outcomes sharing the rest. A short price means the market rates that side more likely. It is not a certainty, and the margin means the three raw probabilities add up to more than 100% before they are scaled.

The 2.5-goal line is priced shorter on Under 2.5 (1.75, about 53.9% after the margin). Both teams to score is shorter on Yes at 1.8.

Season points-per-game rates were not stored on this fixture yet. The odds chart still shows how the 1X2, goals, and both-teams markets are priced.

Tondela vs Arouca FAQs

4 questions

What time is Tondela vs Arouca?

Kickoff is 16:30 on 3 January 2026, shown in Africa/Lagos.

Which outcome is shortest on Tondela vs Arouca?

Tondela is the shortest 1X2 price at 1.85. The margin-adjusted share is about 50.4%.

What are the over and under 2.5 prices?

Over 2.5 is 2.05 and under 2.5 is 1.75.

Do both teams score on this match?

Both teams to score is priced at 1.8. That is a market price, not a forecast that both sides will score.

Tondela vs Arouca prediction, H2H and stats