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Tondela vs Rio Ave Prediction, H2H, Stats & Betting Tips

Portugal · Primeira LigaMon, 9 Mar 2026

Tondela

17th in table · 28 pts

WWWWL

Mon, 9 Mar 202621:15

0 : 1

Full time

Rio Ave

12th in table · 36 pts

DLWWL

Pre-match win probability

43.7%Tondela29.4%Draw26.9%Rio Ave

Our prediction

Home or Draw · Tondela

Tondela vs Rio Ave listed tip from the board.

Odds1.28
Confidence43.7%
ResultGraded
Pre-match model probabilityPick and odds as published before kick-off
  • Tondela 43.7%
  • Draw 29.4%
  • Rio Ave 26.9%

Season statistics

Primeira Liga · 10 matches each · highlighted side is stronger

TondelaRio Ave
Goals scored (avg)
1.60.9
Goals conceded (avg)Lower is better
0.92.1
Wins
68
Played
3434

Recent form

Last matches · newest first

Tondela6W 0D 4L in last 10
  • 25 OctAVS2 – 1TondelaL
  • 18 OctTondela2 – 0AlvercaW
  • 10 OctTondela1 – 0TorreenseW
  • 19 SeptImortal Albufeira1 – 5TondelaW
  • 12 SeptPortimonense0 – 2TondelaW
Rio Ave3W 1D 6L in last 10
  • 25 OctRio Ave0 – 4FamalicaoL
  • 17 OctLouletano0 – 1Rio AveW
  • 11 OctRio Ave3 – 2NacionalW
  • 19 SeptAlverca1 – 0Rio AveL
  • 14 SeptRio Ave3 – 3EstrelaD
H2H
Head to headTondela 2W · 3D · Rio Ave 4W · 3.1 goals a game
  • 1 AugRio Ave3 – 1Tondela
  • 5 OctRio Ave3 – 0Tondela
  • 12 JanRio Ave0 – 1Tondela
  • 9 FebRio Ave2 – 1Tondela
  • 20 SeptTondela1 – 1Rio Ave
  • 22 FebTondela1 – 2Rio Ave

Betting markets

Bookmaker prices with margin removed

Goal lineOverUnder
0.5 goals22.1% · 1.072.6% · 9
1.5 goals17.8% · 1.337.3% · 3.25
2.5 goals11.4% · 2.0813.7% · 1.73
3.5 goals6.3% · 3.7518.9% · 1.25

Both teams to score

Yes52%
No48%

Double chance

1X57.5%
X242.5%

Match result

Tondela2.15
Draw3.2
Rio Ave3.5

Both teams to score

Yes52% · 1.8
No48% · 1.95

1X

Chance57.5%
Odds1.28

X2

Chance42.5%
Odds1.73

Tondela

Chance43.7%
Odds2.15

Draw

Chance29.4%
Odds3.2

Rio Ave

Chance26.9%
Odds3.5

No half-time prices stored.

No corner prices stored.

Model comparison

Our pick: Home or Draw at 1.28

TondelaRio Ave
Recent form64%36%
Attack64%36%
Defence70%30%
Goals model64%36%
Head-to-head39%61%
Overall62%38%

Trends

Trend · Primeira Liga

Tondela scored 1.6 per game in the last 10.

Trend · Primeira Liga

Tondela conceded 0.9 per game in the last 10.

Trend · Primeira Liga

Failed to score in 3 of those 10.

Trend · Primeira Liga

Kept a clean sheet in 4 of those 10.

Tondela vs Rio Ave: prediction & preview

Portugal · Primeira Liga · Mon, 9 Mar 2026

Tondela meet Rio Ave in the Portugal, Primeira Liga on 9 March 2026 at 21:15 (Africa/Lagos). The recorded score is 0–1.

On the 1X2 market the shortest price is Tondela at 2.15. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, that outcome carries about 43.7% of the implied chance, with the other two outcomes sharing the rest. A short price means the market rates that side more likely. It is not a certainty, and the margin means the three raw probabilities add up to more than 100% before they are scaled.

The 2.5-goal line is priced shorter on Under 2.5 (1.73, about 54.6% after the margin). Both teams to score is shorter on Yes at 1.8.

Season points-per-game rates were not stored on this fixture yet. The odds chart still shows how the 1X2, goals, and both-teams markets are priced.

Tondela vs Rio Ave FAQs

4 questions

What time is Tondela vs Rio Ave?

Kickoff is 21:15 on 9 March 2026, shown in Africa/Lagos.

Which outcome is shortest on Tondela vs Rio Ave?

Tondela is the shortest 1X2 price at 2.15. The margin-adjusted share is about 43.7%.

What are the over and under 2.5 prices?

Over 2.5 is 2.08 and under 2.5 is 1.73.

Do both teams score on this match?

Both teams to score is priced at 1.8. That is a market price, not a forecast that both sides will score.