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When it comes to predicting football matches, it is not just a matter of picking the bigger side, or just one involving a team's performance in its previous match. There is nothing like a reputation more than two teams coming in a match in very different circumstances.
An effective team might lack essential players. A poor team can have a sudden surge of form at home. Another team could have played a four-game winning streak against fairly weak teams.
We believe that with multiple pieces of information it makes more sense to make football predictions at TodaysPredict. While there is no sure way to predict what will occur after kick-off, match analysis can help you understand what's most likely to happen.
If you are about to make your next football prediction, here are 10 things that you should be checking.
1. Start With Recent Form
First place where football fans turn to look at their current form.
This typically involves looking at a team in their last 5-6 games and determining the number they won, drew or lost.
For example:
W - W - D - W - L
looks much stronger than:
L - D - L - W - L
However, do not limit yourself to the letters.
Inquire about what actually occurs in those games.
A team can have three victories in a row in series games against bottom-of-the-table clubs. Their next opponent could be one of the strongest teams in the competition.
A different team could have lost twice but played the league leaders and second team.
Recent form is of great assistance, but it needs to be placed in context by the quality of opposition.
Take note of whether performances are getting better or worse.
Success does not always come in the form of results.
2. Separate Home Form From Away Form
The simplest mistake people make when forecasting football games is simply focusing on the overall record of the team.
Away games can be quite different from home games!
There are some teams that are a poor road team but a very strong home team.
Imagine a club has:
8 home games won out of 10 games played
but only:
2 of 10 away wins.
It would be misleading to simply examine the average record to identify an important pattern.
When making a prediction be sure to check:
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The percentage of home team victories at home
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The number of goals they score there
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how many they concede
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How the away side does in an away match.
This can be particularly helpful when two teams are equally ranked in their overall league rankings.
Home and away records can show that they're not as cut-throat as they seem.
3. Check Goals Scored and Goals Conceded
The win/loss record of a team is the result.
Goals will give you more insight into how those results were achieved.
If Team A have scored 18 goals in their previous 10 games and conceded 17, how many goals did they score in the 10 games?If team A has scored 18 goals and conceded 17 in their last 10 games, how many goals did they score in the 10 games?
That may indicate that there are games that can be played on the half.
Meanwhile, team B could have scored just 9 goals but have allowed 6.
Those stats refer to two different types of teams.
This information can be useful in evaluating markets for:
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Over 2.5 goals
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Under 2.5 goals
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Both Teams to Score
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Home team to score
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Correct score
Total goals scored for the season aren't the only thing to take into account either.
Recent scoring patterns may be important as teams swap in and out.
A striker can come back from injury. Formation change is allowed at the discretion of a manager. If one team has struggled to score throughout the season, they might be scoring differently as the season moves forward.
4. Look at Who They Have Been Playing
All victories are not created equal.
A team going through the relegation battle should not be viewed as a team that has beaten three teams to win the title.
This is where you can find many of the simple football predictions to be inaccurate.
Take into account the ability of recent opponents.
What is the probability that one of two teams has won a series of four games and the other has won five games?What is the probability that one of two teams has won 4 games and the other won 5 games?
On a superficial level, they appear to be the same shape.
However Team A's wins were against the following club rankings:
17th, 18th, 14th and 20th
As for the rest of the teams, they were defeated by teams ranked:
2nd, 4th, 7th and 9th.
The form line could be identical, but the performances could be very different.
Always put results into context.
5. Check Injuries, Suspensions and Team News
Previous match statistics assume a similar team will be on hand again.
Not always that's the case.
The absence of a goalkeeper, central defender, creative midfielder or leading striker can affect the way a game is played.
Prior to the games, verify if key players are:
injured,
suspended,
being rested,
returning from injury,
Likely to not begin.
An absence's value is also based on the team.
If a club has multiple good substitutes, it can easily manage without one regular.
One player can be the key to both goals and ideas for another team.
One of the reasons predictions can change closer to game time.
The information that is posted on Monday could be different by Saturday afternoon.
6. Understand What Each Team Needs From the Match
Certain times of the season are crucial for motivation.
A result between two mid-table sides in the last few games could very well have a very different atmosphere to a relegation or title decider.
To ask each side what they are playing for.
Could they:
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win the league?
-
qualify for Europe?
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Make it to the second round?
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avoid relegation?
-
secure promotion?
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safeguard a first leg?
Draw can be advantageous for one team and virtually useless to the other sometimes.
This may affect both teams' attitudes to the game.
This does not imply that a team will win "because they have to win.
While it's true that motivation is important, ability is also important.
An underperforming team with a deficit of three points against the leaders of the league becomes the favourites overnight only if losing the game is bad news for them.
7. Use Head-to-Head Records Carefully
Head-to-head stats are a go-record because they're easy to comprehend.
When Team A has already won five matches against Team B, it is only natural that you'll be paying attention.
The head-to-head comparisons of older games can become quickly irrelevant, however.
Managers change.
Players leave.
Form changes.
Tactics change.
Four year old match teams could be entirely different.
The meetings are usually more valuable when the managers and the players and styles are both the same, as in recent years.
Information that is presented head to head can be used to help detect patterns, but not to drive patterns.
If you are getting goals in repeat high scoring games, for instance, you might want to delve into that to find out what is making them score goals.
Useful to be able to predict that, instead of just assuming it will happen again because it did before.
8. Look at League Position - But Don't Depend on It
The league table gives an immediate overview of the performance of the teams throughout the season.
It can show:
points,
wins,
draws,
losses,
goal difference,
home performance,
away performance,
and sometimes recent forms.
Put simply, league position is not the sole determinant of one match.
A 15th placed team can defeat a 5th placed team.
Football does not restart as per table before every match.
The lower ranked team might have been in good form recently and the higher ranked team is having a bad run.
It could also be played in a stadium that the lesser-known club does exceptionally well.
Consider League position as context, not as final prediction.
9. Compare the Odds With Your Analysis
Betting odds can give you another piece of information.
They reflect the current valuation of the market on various potential scenarios.
In a typical 1X2 match, you will have:
1 - Home win
X - Draw
2 - Away win
The shorter the odds the more likely the market thinks the event will happen.
However, it is not guaranteed that there will be shorter odds.
It is possible for a favourite to win or lose at relatively low odds.
The important question is whether the odds seem to align with all the other information you've obtained.
When the numbers look extremely favourable for one side, but the market appears extremely guarded, dig deeper.
You might have some things that you haven't heard before.
Perhaps an important player is missing.
Perhaps the favourite is not that strong on the road.
Maybe it's the opposition that's gotten better lately.
Football analysis should not be replaced by the odds, but can be an additional source of analysis.
10. Think About the Prediction Market, Not Just the Winner
Attempting to claim victory in every match can lead to a rather limited analysis of football.
At times, there is more clarity about another market.
Suppose two offence teams score frequently, but concede scores as well.
It may be hard to decide who the winner is.
The heightened observation might relate to objectives.
It can sometimes be more logical to look at 1X2, but sometimes markets like Both Teams to Score or Over 2.5 seem to be better to be analysed.
In one game, either team can be strong defensively, but weak offensively.
More focus should be paid to a lower-goals market.
The information provided in each match is different.
Do not try to put all the fixtures in the same prediction market.
Put the Information Together Before Making a Prediction
The actual value lies in a combination of these.
Suppose the following fixture.
The local side have won 4 out of 5.
Good sign.
It has also picked up seven of its last eight victories at home.
Another positive.
Opposition has now lost four away games in a row.
That strengthens the case.
Then you find out that the top scorer and first choice goalkeeper for the home team are both off.
Then all of a sudden, the picture becomes more complicated.
That's why football predictions should take into account multiple checks and not one impressive number.
No single determinant is the whole story.
Don't Try to Predict Every Match
The longer a fixture list gets, the more it can give the impression that we must make a prediction in every game.
It doesn't.
There are matches that are hard to follow.
The teams can be of equal strength.
Limited information may be available on file that is reliable and recent.
The odds might not provide any guidance.
There may be a lot of confusion within the squad.
In those cases it may be a good idea to just leave the game.
Football analysis is in part about knowing when the evidence is lacking.
Having twenty matches that are being played today, doesn't mean you have 20 strong opportunities.
Keep Predictions Separate From Certainty
There's nothing like studies to eliminate doubt in football.
The red card can make a game turn around in a matter of moments.
A penalty may be forfeited.
Goalkeepers can have unpredictable lapses in judgment.
A team can have possession and numerous opportunities but still end up losing 1-0.
The uncertainty is a part of football.
The analysis of form, goals, injuries, odds and other factors is therefore not meant to give a sure-fire result.
It is intended to make a more informed guess, given the information accessible prior to kick off.
The terms 100% sure win, guaranteed prediction or fixed match should be taken with a pinch of salt, as it is not possible to guarantee the outcome of a football match in advance.
A Simple Routine Before Kickoff
There's no need to spend hours studying each fixture.
One way to have a practical routine is:
Look at the players' recent form.
Afterwards, check your home and away stats.
Examine goals scored and conceded.
Check out opponents' strengths over the last few times.
Review injuries, suspensions.
Know what both teams expect from the game.
Check out some recent head-to-head games.
Check league position.
Compare the odds.
Lastly, choose the correct prediction market for the information.
When there's a lot of different reasons for thinking the same thing, the game might be worth more of a look.
When there is a strong contrast in information, that is also useful information.
It could just be something you're not meant to encounter.
Conclusion
The secret to predicting football games isn't trying to discover a magic formula, but instead to ask the right questions prior to kickoff.
Recent form is important but so is opposition quality.
The League position is important, but the home and away game performance can be different.
While head-to-heads do help, it is only when they're still relevant.
Odds offer useful market information, but they don't guarantee anything.
Team news can turn an otherwise solid prediction on its head in mere moments.
We at TodaysPredict do not suggest that anyone should rely on any of our football predictions as a foregone conclusion and only use them in conjunction with their own research.
The clearer you are in your mind about why a specific result appears to be likely, the better you will be able to evaluate the game before the first whistle.
