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Aston Villa vs Chelsea Prediction, H2H, Stats & Betting Tips

England · Premier LeagueWed, 4 Mar 2026

Aston Villa

Wed, 4 Mar 202620:30

1 : 4

Full time

Chelsea

Pre-match win probability

34.8%Aston Villa27.6%Draw37.6%Chelsea

Our prediction

Over 1.5 · Aston Villa

Aston Villa vs Chelsea listed tip from the board.

Odds1.22
Confidence37.6%
ResultGraded
Pre-match model probabilityPick and odds as published before kick-off
  • Aston Villa 34.8%
  • Draw 27.6%
  • Chelsea 37.6%

Season statistics

Premier League · highlighted side is stronger

Aston VillaChelsea

Betting markets

Bookmaker prices with margin removed

Goal lineOverUnder
0.5 goals22.9% · 1.041.8% · 13
1.5 goals19.5% · 1.225.5% · 4.33
2.5 goals13.8% · 1.7311.3% · 2.1
3.5 goals8.7% · 2.7516.5% · 1.44

Both teams to score

Yes58.9%
No41.1%

Double chance

1X47.8%
X252.2%

Match result

Aston Villa2.7
Draw3.4
Chelsea2.5

Both teams to score

Yes58.9% · 1.57
No41.1% · 2.25

1X

Chance47.8%
Odds1.53

X2

Chance52.2%
Odds1.4

Aston Villa

Chance34.8%
Odds2.7

Draw

Chance27.6%
Odds3.4

Chelsea

Chance37.6%
Odds2.5

No half-time prices stored.

No corner prices stored.

Model comparison

Our pick: Over 1.5 at 1.22

Aston VillaChelsea
Recent form50%50%
Attack50%50%
Defence50%50%
Goals model50%50%
Overall48%52%

Aston Villa vs Chelsea: prediction & preview

England · Premier League · Wed, 4 Mar 2026

Aston Villa meet Chelsea in the England, Premier League on 4 March 2026 at 20:30 (Africa/Lagos). The recorded score is 1–4.

On the 1X2 market the shortest price is Chelsea at 2.5. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, that outcome carries about 37.6% of the implied chance, with the other two outcomes sharing the rest. A short price means the market rates that side more likely. It is not a certainty, and the margin means the three raw probabilities add up to more than 100% before they are scaled.

The 2.5-goal line is priced shorter on Over 2.5 (1.73, about 54.8% after the margin). Both teams to score is shorter on Yes at 1.57.

Season points-per-game rates were not stored on this fixture yet. The odds chart still shows how the 1X2, goals, and both-teams markets are priced.

Aston Villa vs Chelsea FAQs

4 questions

What time is Aston Villa vs Chelsea?

Kickoff is 20:30 on 4 March 2026, shown in Africa/Lagos.

Which outcome is shortest on Aston Villa vs Chelsea?

Chelsea is the shortest 1X2 price at 2.5. The margin-adjusted share is about 37.6%.

What are the over and under 2.5 prices?

Over 2.5 is 1.73 and under 2.5 is 2.1.

Do both teams score on this match?

Both teams to score is priced at 1.57. That is a market price, not a forecast that both sides will score.

Aston Villa vs Chelsea prediction, H2H and stats