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Derby vs Stoke City Prediction, H2H, Stats & Betting Tips

England · ChampionshipSat, 17 Oct 2026

Derby

Sat, 17 Oct 202615:00

0 : 1

Full time

Stoke City

Pre-match win probability

32.4%Derby27.6%Draw40%Stoke City

Our prediction

Stoke City

Stoke City is the shortest 1X2 price in the stored market.

Odds2.35
Confidence40%
ResultGraded
Pre-match model probabilityPick and odds as published before kick-off
  • Derby 32.4%
  • Draw 27.6%
  • Stoke City 40%

Season statistics

Championship · highlighted side is stronger

DerbyStoke City

Betting markets

Bookmaker prices with margin removed

Goal lineOverUnder
0.5 goals22.4% · 1.062.5% · 9.5
1.5 goals18.3% · 1.36.8% · 3.5
2.5 goals11.9% · 213.2% · 1.8
3.5 goals6.8% · 3.518.3% · 1.3

Both teams to score

Yes53.6%
No46.4%

Double chance

1X47.1%
X252.9%

Match result

Derby2.9
Draw3.4
Stoke City2.35

Both teams to score

Yes53.6% · 1.73
No46.4% · 2

1X

Chance47.1%
Odds1.57

X2

Chance52.9%
Odds1.4

Derby

Chance32.4%
Odds2.9

Draw

Chance27.6%
Odds3.4

Stoke City

Chance40%
Odds2.35

No half-time prices stored.

No corner prices stored.

Model comparison

Our pick: Stoke City at 2.35

DerbyStoke City
Recent form50%50%
Attack50%50%
Defence50%50%
Goals model50%50%
Overall45%55%

Derby vs Stoke City: prediction & preview

England · Championship · Sat, 17 Oct 2026

Derby meet Stoke City in the England, Championship on 17 October 2026 at 15:00 (Africa/Lagos). The recorded score is 0–1.

On the 1X2 market the shortest price is Stoke City at 2.35. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, that outcome carries about 40% of the implied chance, with the other two outcomes sharing the rest. A short price means the market rates that side more likely. It is not a certainty, and the margin means the three raw probabilities add up to more than 100% before they are scaled.

The 2.5-goal line is priced shorter on Under 2.5 (1.8, about 52.6% after the margin). Both teams to score is shorter on Yes at 1.73.

Season points-per-game rates were not stored on this fixture yet. The odds chart still shows how the 1X2, goals, and both-teams markets are priced.

Derby vs Stoke City FAQs

4 questions

What time is Derby vs Stoke City?

Kickoff is 15:00 on 17 October 2026, shown in Africa/Lagos.

Which outcome is shortest on Derby vs Stoke City?

Stoke City is the shortest 1X2 price at 2.35. The margin-adjusted share is about 40%.

What are the over and under 2.5 prices?

Over 2.5 is 2 and under 2.5 is 1.8.

Do both teams score on this match?

Both teams to score is priced at 1.73. That is a market price, not a forecast that both sides will score.

Derby vs Stoke City prediction, H2H and stats