Fiorentina vs AC Milan Prediction, H2H, Stats & Betting Tips

Italy · Serie ASun, 11 Jan 2026

Fiorentina

Sun, 11 Jan 202615:00

1 : 1

Full time

AC Milan

Pre-match win probability

27%Fiorentina29.1%Draw43.9%AC Milan

Our prediction

Over 1.5 · Fiorentina

Fiorentina vs AC Milan listed tip from the board.

Odds2.15
Confidence43.9%
ResultGraded
Pre-match model probabilityPick and odds as published before kick-off
  • Fiorentina 27%
  • Draw 29.1%
  • AC Milan 43.9%

Season statistics

Serie A · highlighted side is stronger

FiorentinaAC Milan

Betting markets

Bookmaker prices with margin removed

Goal lineOverUnder
0.5 goals22.5% · 1.062.4% · 10
1.5 goals18.7% · 1.286.4% · 3.75
2.5 goals12.5% · 1.9112.5% · 1.91
3.5 goals7.5% · 3.217.6% · 1.36

Both teams to score

Yes54.7%
No45.3%

Double chance

1X43.4%
X256.6%

Match result

Fiorentina3.5
Draw3.25
AC Milan2.15

Both teams to score

Yes54.7% · 1.7
No45.3% · 2.05

1X

Chance43.4%
Odds1.67

X2

Chance56.6%
Odds1.28

Fiorentina

Chance27%
Odds3.5

Draw

Chance29.1%
Odds3.25

AC Milan

Chance43.9%
Odds2.15

No half-time prices stored.

No corner prices stored.

Model comparison

Our pick: Over 1.5 at 2.15

FiorentinaAC Milan
Recent form50%50%
Attack50%50%
Defence50%50%
Goals model50%50%
Overall38%62%

Fiorentina vs AC Milan: prediction & preview

Italy · Serie A · Sun, 11 Jan 2026

Fiorentina meet AC Milan in the Italy, Serie A on 11 January 2026 at 15:00 (Africa/Lagos). The recorded score is 1–1.

On the 1X2 market the shortest price is AC Milan at 2.15. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, that outcome carries about 43.9% of the implied chance, with the other two outcomes sharing the rest. A short price means the market rates that side more likely. It is not a certainty, and the margin means the three raw probabilities add up to more than 100% before they are scaled.

The 2.5-goal line is priced shorter on Over 2.5 (1.91, about 50% after the margin). Both teams to score is shorter on Yes at 1.7.

Season points-per-game rates were not stored on this fixture yet. The odds chart still shows how the 1X2, goals, and both-teams markets are priced.

Fiorentina vs AC Milan FAQs

4 questions

What time is Fiorentina vs AC Milan?

Kickoff is 15:00 on 11 January 2026, shown in Africa/Lagos.

Which outcome is shortest on Fiorentina vs AC Milan?

AC Milan is the shortest 1X2 price at 2.15. The margin-adjusted share is about 43.9%.

What are the over and under 2.5 prices?

Over 2.5 is 1.91 and under 2.5 is 1.91.

Do both teams score on this match?

Both teams to score is priced at 1.7. That is a market price, not a forecast that both sides will score.

Fiorentina vs AC Milan prediction, H2H and stats