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Italy vs Türkiye Prediction, H2H, Stats & Betting Tips

World · UEFA Nations LeagueMon, 5 Oct 2026

Italy

2nd in table · 7 pts

DWLWW

Mon, 5 Oct 202619:45

3 : 1

Full time

Türkiye

4th in table · 0 pts

LLLWL

Pre-match win probability

68.5%Italy18%Draw13.5%Türkiye

Our prediction

Home · Italy

Italy vs Türkiye listed tip from the board.

Odds1.38
Confidence68.5%
ResultGraded
Pre-match model probabilityPick and odds as published before kick-off
  • Italy 68.5%
  • Draw 18%
  • Türkiye 13.5%

Season statistics

UEFA Nations League · highlighted side is stronger

ItalyTürkiye
Wins
20
Played
44

Recent form

Last matches · newest first

Italy0W 0D 0L in last 0
    Türkiye0W 0D 0L in last 0
      H2H
      Head to headNo previous meetings found between these sides.

      Betting markets

      Bookmaker prices with margin removed

      Goal lineOverUnder
      0.5 goals23.2% · 1.021.4% · 17
      1.5 goals20.2% · 1.174.7% · 5
      2.5 goals15.1% · 1.5710.1% · 2.35
      3.5 goals9.9% · 2.3815.5% · 1.53

      Both teams to score

      Yes50%
      No50%

      Double chance

      1X73.2%
      X226.8%

      Match result

      Italy1.38
      Draw5.25
      Türkiye7

      Both teams to score

      Yes50% · 1.83
      No50% · 1.83

      1X

      Chance73.2%
      Odds1.1

      X2

      Chance26.8%
      Odds3

      Italy

      Chance68.5%
      Odds1.38

      Draw

      Chance18%
      Odds5.25

      Türkiye

      Chance13.5%
      Odds7

      No half-time prices stored.

      No corner prices stored.

      Model comparison

      Our pick: Home at 1.38

      ItalyTürkiye
      Recent form50%50%
      Attack50%50%
      Defence50%50%
      Goals model50%50%
      Overall84%16%

      Italy vs Türkiye: prediction & preview

      World · UEFA Nations League · Mon, 5 Oct 2026

      Italy meet Türkiye in the World, UEFA Nations League on 5 October 2026 at 19:45 (Africa/Lagos). The recorded score is 3–1.

      On the 1X2 market the shortest price is Italy at 1.38. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, that outcome carries about 68.5% of the implied chance, with the other two outcomes sharing the rest. A short price means the market rates that side more likely. It is not a certainty, and the margin means the three raw probabilities add up to more than 100% before they are scaled.

      The 2.5-goal line is priced shorter on Over 2.5 (1.57, about 59.9% after the margin). Both teams to score is shorter on Yes at 1.83.

      Season points-per-game rates were not stored on this fixture yet. The odds chart still shows how the 1X2, goals, and both-teams markets are priced.

      Italy vs Türkiye FAQs

      4 questions

      What time is Italy vs Türkiye?

      Kickoff is 19:45 on 5 October 2026, shown in Africa/Lagos.

      Which outcome is shortest on Italy vs Türkiye?

      Italy is the shortest 1X2 price at 1.38. The margin-adjusted share is about 68.5%.

      What are the over and under 2.5 prices?

      Over 2.5 is 1.57 and under 2.5 is 2.35.

      Do both teams score on this match?

      Both teams to score is priced at 1.83. That is a market price, not a forecast that both sides will score.