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Mazatlán vs Toluca Prediction, H2H, Stats & Betting Tips

Mexico · Liga MXThu, 23 Apr 2026

Mazatlán

Thu, 23 Apr 202602:00

4 : 3

Full time

Toluca

Pre-match win probability

15.8%Mazatlán20%Draw64.2%Toluca

Our prediction

Toluca

Toluca is the shortest 1X2 price in the stored market.

Odds1.48
Confidence64.2%
ResultGraded
Pre-match model probabilityPick and odds as published before kick-off
  • Mazatlán 15.8%
  • Draw 20%
  • Toluca 64.2%

Season statistics

Liga MX · highlighted side is stronger

MazatlánToluca

Betting markets

Bookmaker prices with margin removed

Goal lineOverUnder
0.5 goals23.2% · 1.021.2% · 19
1.5 goals21.1% · 1.123.9% · 6
2.5 goals16.4% · 1.448.8% · 2.7
3.5 goals11.3% · 2.114.1% · 1.67

Both teams to score

Yes58.9%
No41.1%

Double chance

1X29.9%
X270.1%

Match result

Mazatlán6
Draw4.75
Toluca1.48

Both teams to score

Yes58.9% · 1.57
No41.1% · 2.25

1X

Chance29.9%
Odds2.62

X2

Chance70.1%
Odds1.12

Mazatlán

Chance15.8%
Odds6

Draw

Chance20%
Odds4.75

Toluca

Chance64.2%
Odds1.48

No half-time prices stored.

No corner prices stored.

Model comparison

Our pick: Toluca at 1.48

MazatlánToluca
Recent form50%50%
Attack50%50%
Defence50%50%
Goals model50%50%
Overall20%80%

Mazatlán vs Toluca: prediction & preview

Mexico · Liga MX · Thu, 23 Apr 2026

Mazatlán meet Toluca in the Mexico, Liga MX on 23 April 2026 at 02:00 (Africa/Lagos). The recorded score is 4–3.

On the 1X2 market the shortest price is Toluca at 1.48. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, that outcome carries about 64.2% of the implied chance, with the other two outcomes sharing the rest. A short price means the market rates that side more likely. It is not a certainty, and the margin means the three raw probabilities add up to more than 100% before they are scaled.

The 2.5-goal line is priced shorter on Over 2.5 (1.44, about 65.2% after the margin). Both teams to score is shorter on Yes at 1.57.

Season points-per-game rates were not stored on this fixture yet. The odds chart still shows how the 1X2, goals, and both-teams markets are priced.

Mazatlán vs Toluca FAQs

4 questions

What time is Mazatlán vs Toluca?

Kickoff is 02:00 on 23 April 2026, shown in Africa/Lagos.

Which outcome is shortest on Mazatlán vs Toluca?

Toluca is the shortest 1X2 price at 1.48. The margin-adjusted share is about 64.2%.

What are the over and under 2.5 prices?

Over 2.5 is 1.44 and under 2.5 is 2.7.

Do both teams score on this match?

Both teams to score is priced at 1.57. That is a market price, not a forecast that both sides will score.

Mazatlán vs Toluca prediction, H2H and stats