Monterrey vs Toluca Prediction, H2H, Stats & Betting Tips

Mexico · Liga MXSun, 11 Jan 2026

Monterrey

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Sun, 11 Jan 202604:05

0 : 1

Full time

Toluca

WLWLD

Pre-match win probability

48%Monterrey26%Draw26%Toluca

Our prediction

Draw · Monterrey

Monterrey vs Toluca listed tip from the board.

Odds3.6
Confidence48%
ResultGraded
Pre-match model probabilityPick and odds as published before kick-off
  • Monterrey 48%
  • Draw 26%
  • Toluca 26%

Season statistics

Liga MX · highlighted side is stronger

MonterreyToluca

Betting markets

Bookmaker prices with margin removed

Goal lineOverUnder
0.5 goals22.7% · 1.041.8% · 13
1.5 goals19.3% · 1.225.9% · 4
2.5 goals13.1% · 1.811.8% · 2
3.5 goals8.6% · 2.7516.8% · 1.4

Both teams to score

Yes55.7%
No44.3%

Double chance

1X58.4%
X241.6%

Match result

Monterrey1.95
Draw3.6
Toluca3.6

Both teams to score

Yes55.7% · 1.67
No44.3% · 2.1

1X

Chance58.4%
Odds1.28

X2

Chance41.6%
Odds1.8

Monterrey

Chance48%
Odds1.95

Draw

Chance26%
Odds3.6

Toluca

Chance26%
Odds3.6

No half-time prices stored.

No corner prices stored.

Model comparison

Our pick: Draw at 3.6

MonterreyToluca
Recent form50%50%
Attack50%50%
Defence50%50%
Goals model50%50%
Overall65%35%

Monterrey vs Toluca: prediction & preview

Mexico · Liga MX · Sun, 11 Jan 2026

Monterrey meet Toluca in the Mexico, Liga MX on 11 January 2026 at 04:05 (Africa/Lagos). The recorded score is 0–1.

On the 1X2 market the shortest price is Monterrey at 1.95. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, that outcome carries about 48% of the implied chance, with the other two outcomes sharing the rest. A short price means the market rates that side more likely. It is not a certainty, and the margin means the three raw probabilities add up to more than 100% before they are scaled.

The 2.5-goal line is priced shorter on Over 2.5 (1.8, about 52.6% after the margin). Both teams to score is shorter on Yes at 1.67.

Season points-per-game rates were not stored on this fixture yet. The odds chart still shows how the 1X2, goals, and both-teams markets are priced.

Monterrey vs Toluca FAQs

4 questions

What time is Monterrey vs Toluca?

Kickoff is 04:05 on 11 January 2026, shown in Africa/Lagos.

Which outcome is shortest on Monterrey vs Toluca?

Monterrey is the shortest 1X2 price at 1.95. The margin-adjusted share is about 48%.

What are the over and under 2.5 prices?

Over 2.5 is 1.8 and under 2.5 is 2.

Do both teams score on this match?

Both teams to score is priced at 1.67. That is a market price, not a forecast that both sides will score.

Monterrey vs Toluca prediction, H2H and stats