Nacional vs Alverca Prediction, H2H, Stats & Betting Tips

Portugal · Primeira LigaSat, 12 Sept 2026

Nacional

Sat, 12 Sept 202615:30

1 : 3

Full time

Alverca

Pre-match win probability

34.3%Nacional28.6%Draw37%Alverca

Our prediction

Alverca

Alverca is the shortest 1X2 price in the stored market.

Odds2.55
Confidence37%
ResultGraded
Pre-match model probabilityPick and odds as published before kick-off
  • Nacional 34.3%
  • Draw 28.6%
  • Alverca 37%

Season statistics

Primeira Liga · highlighted side is stronger

NacionalAlverca

Betting markets

Bookmaker prices with margin removed

Goal lineOverUnder
0.5 goals22.3% · 1.062.4% · 10
1.5 goals17.8% · 1.337.3% · 3.25
2.5 goals11.4% · 2.0813.7% · 1.73
3.5 goals6.3% · 3.7518.9% · 1.25

Both teams to score

Yes52%
No48%

Double chance

1X51%
X249%

Match result

Nacional2.75
Draw3.3
Alverca2.55

Both teams to score

Yes52% · 1.8
No48% · 1.95

1X

Chance51%
Odds1.44

X2

Chance49%
Odds1.5

Nacional

Chance34.3%
Odds2.75

Draw

Chance28.6%
Odds3.3

Alverca

Chance37%
Odds2.55

No half-time prices stored.

No corner prices stored.

Model comparison

Our pick: Alverca at 2.55

NacionalAlverca
Recent form50%50%
Attack50%50%
Defence50%50%
Goals model50%50%
Overall48%52%

Nacional vs Alverca: prediction & preview

Portugal · Primeira Liga · Sat, 12 Sept 2026

Nacional meet Alverca in the Portugal, Primeira Liga on 12 September 2026 at 15:30 (Africa/Lagos). The recorded score is 1–3.

On the 1X2 market the shortest price is Alverca at 2.55. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, that outcome carries about 37% of the implied chance, with the other two outcomes sharing the rest. A short price means the market rates that side more likely. It is not a certainty, and the margin means the three raw probabilities add up to more than 100% before they are scaled.

The 2.5-goal line is priced shorter on Under 2.5 (1.73, about 54.6% after the margin). Both teams to score is shorter on Yes at 1.8.

Season points-per-game rates were not stored on this fixture yet. The odds chart still shows how the 1X2, goals, and both-teams markets are priced.

Nacional vs Alverca FAQs

4 questions

What time is Nacional vs Alverca?

Kickoff is 15:30 on 12 September 2026, shown in Africa/Lagos.

Which outcome is shortest on Nacional vs Alverca?

Alverca is the shortest 1X2 price at 2.55. The margin-adjusted share is about 37%.

What are the over and under 2.5 prices?

Over 2.5 is 2.08 and under 2.5 is 1.73.

Do both teams score on this match?

Both teams to score is priced at 1.8. That is a market price, not a forecast that both sides will score.

Nacional vs Alverca prediction, H2H and stats