Sweden vs Poland Prediction, H2H, Stats & Betting Tips

Sweden

Mon, 28 Sept 202619:45

3 : 1

Full time

Poland

Pre-match win probability

50%Sweden24.4%Draw25.7%Poland

Our prediction

Over 1.5 · Sweden

Sweden vs Poland listed tip from the board.

Odds1.9
Confidence50%
ResultGraded
Pre-match model probabilityPick and odds as published before kick-off
  • Sweden 50%
  • Draw 24.4%
  • Poland 25.7%

Season statistics

UEFA Nations League · highlighted side is stronger

SwedenPoland

Betting markets

Bookmaker prices with margin removed

Goal lineOverUnder
0.5 goals23.2% · 1.021.4% · 17
1.5 goals20.2% · 1.174.7% · 5
2.5 goals15.1% · 1.5710.1% · 2.35
3.5 goals9.9% · 2.3815.5% · 1.53

Both teams to score

Yes60.9%
No39.1%

Double chance

1X58.4%
X241.6%

Match result

Sweden1.9
Draw3.9
Poland3.7

Both teams to score

Yes60.9% · 1.53
No39.1% · 2.38

1X

Chance58.4%
Odds1.28

X2

Chance41.6%
Odds1.8

Sweden

Chance50%
Odds1.9

Draw

Chance24.4%
Odds3.9

Poland

Chance25.7%
Odds3.7

No half-time prices stored.

No corner prices stored.

Model comparison

Our pick: Over 1.5 at 1.9

SwedenPoland
Recent form50%50%
Attack50%50%
Defence50%50%
Goals model50%50%
Overall66%34%

Sweden vs Poland: prediction & preview

World · UEFA Nations League · Mon, 28 Sept 2026

Sweden meet Poland in the World, UEFA Nations League on 28 September 2026 at 19:45 (Africa/Lagos). The recorded score is 3–1.

On the 1X2 market the shortest price is Sweden at 1.9. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, that outcome carries about 50% of the implied chance, with the other two outcomes sharing the rest. A short price means the market rates that side more likely. It is not a certainty, and the margin means the three raw probabilities add up to more than 100% before they are scaled.

The 2.5-goal line is priced shorter on Over 2.5 (1.57, about 59.9% after the margin). Both teams to score is shorter on Yes at 1.53.

Season points-per-game rates were not stored on this fixture yet. The odds chart still shows how the 1X2, goals, and both-teams markets are priced.

Sweden vs Poland FAQs

4 questions

What time is Sweden vs Poland?

Kickoff is 19:45 on 28 September 2026, shown in Africa/Lagos.

Which outcome is shortest on Sweden vs Poland?

Sweden is the shortest 1X2 price at 1.9. The margin-adjusted share is about 50%.

What are the over and under 2.5 prices?

Over 2.5 is 1.57 and under 2.5 is 2.35.

Do both teams score on this match?

Both teams to score is priced at 1.53. That is a market price, not a forecast that both sides will score.

Sweden vs Poland prediction, H2H and stats