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Toluca vs Guadalajara Chivas Prediction, H2H, Stats & Betting Tips

Mexico · Liga MXSun, 1 Mar 2026

Toluca

WWDDD

Sun, 1 Mar 202600:00

2 : 0

Full time

Guadalajara Chivas

LWWWW

Pre-match win probability

45.1%Toluca28.7%Draw26.3%Guadalajara Chivas

Our prediction

Home or Draw · Toluca

Toluca vs Guadalajara Chivas listed tip from the board.

Odds1.28
Confidence45.1%
ResultGraded
Pre-match model probabilityPick and odds as published before kick-off
  • Toluca 45.1%
  • Draw 28.7%
  • Guadalajara Chivas 26.3%

Season statistics

Liga MX · highlighted side is stronger

TolucaGuadalajara Chivas

Betting markets

Bookmaker prices with margin removed

Goal lineOverUnder
0.5 goals22.3% · 1.062.4% · 10
1.5 goals18.5% · 1.286.8% · 3.5
2.5 goals12.1% · 1.9512.8% · 1.85
3.5 goals7.3% · 3.2517.8% · 1.33

Both teams to score

Yes53.3%
No46.7%

Double chance

1X57%
X243%

Match result

Toluca2.1
Draw3.3
Guadalajara Chivas3.6

Both teams to score

Yes53.3% · 1.75
No46.7% · 2

1X

Chance57%
Odds1.28

X2

Chance43%
Odds1.7

Toluca

Chance45.1%
Odds2.1

Draw

Chance28.7%
Odds3.3

Guadalajara Chivas

Chance26.3%
Odds3.6

No half-time prices stored.

No corner prices stored.

Model comparison

Our pick: Home or Draw at 1.28

TolucaGuadalajara Chivas
Recent form50%50%
Attack50%50%
Defence50%50%
Goals model50%50%
Overall63%37%

Toluca vs Guadalajara Chivas: prediction & preview

Mexico · Liga MX · Sun, 1 Mar 2026

Toluca meet Guadalajara Chivas in the Mexico, Liga MX on 1 March 2026 at 00:00 (Africa/Lagos). The recorded score is 2–0.

On the 1X2 market the shortest price is Toluca at 2.1. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, that outcome carries about 45.1% of the implied chance, with the other two outcomes sharing the rest. A short price means the market rates that side more likely. It is not a certainty, and the margin means the three raw probabilities add up to more than 100% before they are scaled.

The 2.5-goal line is priced shorter on Under 2.5 (1.85, about 51.3% after the margin). Both teams to score is shorter on Yes at 1.75.

Season points-per-game rates were not stored on this fixture yet. The odds chart still shows how the 1X2, goals, and both-teams markets are priced.

Toluca vs Guadalajara Chivas FAQs

4 questions

What time is Toluca vs Guadalajara Chivas?

Kickoff is 00:00 on 1 March 2026, shown in Africa/Lagos.

Which outcome is shortest on Toluca vs Guadalajara Chivas?

Toluca is the shortest 1X2 price at 2.1. The margin-adjusted share is about 45.1%.

What are the over and under 2.5 prices?

Over 2.5 is 1.95 and under 2.5 is 1.85.

Do both teams score on this match?

Both teams to score is priced at 1.75. That is a market price, not a forecast that both sides will score.

Toluca vs Guadalajara Chivas prediction, H2H and stats