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Türkiye vs Italy Prediction, H2H, Stats & Betting Tips

World · UEFA Nations LeagueMon, 28 Sept 2026

Türkiye

LWLLW

Mon, 28 Sept 202619:45

1 : 4

Full time

Italy

LWW

Pre-match win probability

34%Türkiye27.2%Draw38.8%Italy

Our prediction

0-1 · Türkiye

Türkiye vs Italy listed tip from the board.

Odds2.45
Confidence38.8%
ResultGraded
Pre-match model probabilityPick and odds as published before kick-off
  • Türkiye 34%
  • Draw 27.2%
  • Italy 38.8%

Season statistics

UEFA Nations League · highlighted side is stronger

TürkiyeItaly

Betting markets

Bookmaker prices with margin removed

Goal lineOverUnder
0.5 goals22.9% · 1.031.6% · 15
1.5 goals20% · 1.185.2% · 4.5
2.5 goals14.6% · 1.6210.5% · 2.25
3.5 goals9.4% · 2.515.7% · 1.5

Both teams to score

Yes62.5%
No37.5%

Double chance

1X47.8%
X252.2%

Match result

Türkiye2.8
Draw3.5
Italy2.45

Both teams to score

Yes62.5% · 1.5
No37.5% · 2.5

1X

Chance47.8%
Odds1.53

X2

Chance52.2%
Odds1.4

Türkiye

Chance34%
Odds2.8

Draw

Chance27.2%
Odds3.5

Italy

Chance38.8%
Odds2.45

No half-time prices stored.

No corner prices stored.

Model comparison

Our pick: 0-1 at 2.45

TürkiyeItaly
Recent form50%50%
Attack50%50%
Defence50%50%
Goals model50%50%
Overall47%53%

Türkiye vs Italy: prediction & preview

World · UEFA Nations League · Mon, 28 Sept 2026

Türkiye meet Italy in the World, UEFA Nations League on 28 September 2026 at 19:45 (Africa/Lagos). The recorded score is 1–4.

On the 1X2 market the shortest price is Italy at 2.45. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, that outcome carries about 38.8% of the implied chance, with the other two outcomes sharing the rest. A short price means the market rates that side more likely. It is not a certainty, and the margin means the three raw probabilities add up to more than 100% before they are scaled.

The 2.5-goal line is priced shorter on Over 2.5 (1.62, about 58.1% after the margin). Both teams to score is shorter on Yes at 1.5.

Season points-per-game rates were not stored on this fixture yet. The odds chart still shows how the 1X2, goals, and both-teams markets are priced.

Türkiye vs Italy FAQs

4 questions

What time is Türkiye vs Italy?

Kickoff is 19:45 on 28 September 2026, shown in Africa/Lagos.

Which outcome is shortest on Türkiye vs Italy?

Italy is the shortest 1X2 price at 2.45. The margin-adjusted share is about 38.8%.

What are the over and under 2.5 prices?

Over 2.5 is 1.62 and under 2.5 is 2.25.

Do both teams score on this match?

Both teams to score is priced at 1.5. That is a market price, not a forecast that both sides will score.

Türkiye vs Italy prediction, H2H and stats