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Arouca vs Tondela Prediction, H2H, Stats & Betting Tips

Portugal · Primeira LigaSat, 16 May 2026

Arouca

8th in table · 42 pts

WDLWL

Sat, 16 May 202618:00

3 : 1

Full time

Tondela

17th in table · 28 pts

WWDLL

Pre-match win probability

28.5%Arouca26.8%Draw44.7%Tondela

Our prediction

Home or Draw · Arouca

Arouca vs Tondela listed tip from the board.

Odds1.7
Confidence44.7%
ResultGraded
Pre-match model probabilityPick and odds as published before kick-off
  • Arouca 28.5%
  • Draw 26.8%
  • Tondela 44.7%

Season statistics

Primeira Liga · highlighted side is stronger

AroucaTondela
Wins
126
Played
3434

Recent form

Last matches · newest first

Arouca0W 0D 0L in last 0
    Tondela0W 0D 0L in last 0
      H2H
      Head to headNo previous meetings found between these sides.

      Betting markets

      Bookmaker prices with margin removed

      Goal lineOverUnder
      0.5 goals22.5% · 1.052.1% · 11
      1.5 goals18.9% · 1.256.3% · 3.75
      2.5 goals12.8% · 1.8512.1% · 1.95
      3.5 goals7.9% · 317.4% · 1.36

      Both teams to score

      Yes54.7%
      No45.3%

      Double chance

      1X43.3%
      X256.7%

      Match result

      Arouca3.3
      Draw3.5
      Tondela2.1

      Both teams to score

      Yes54.7% · 1.7
      No45.3% · 2.05

      1X

      Chance43.3%
      Odds1.7

      X2

      Chance56.7%
      Odds1.3

      Arouca

      Chance28.5%
      Odds3.3

      Draw

      Chance26.8%
      Odds3.5

      Tondela

      Chance44.7%
      Odds2.1

      No half-time prices stored.

      No corner prices stored.

      Model comparison

      Our pick: Home or Draw at 1.7

      AroucaTondela
      Recent form50%50%
      Attack50%50%
      Defence50%50%
      Goals model50%50%
      Overall39%61%

      Arouca vs Tondela: prediction & preview

      Portugal · Primeira Liga · Sat, 16 May 2026

      Arouca meet Tondela in the Portugal, Primeira Liga on 16 May 2026 at 18:00 (Africa/Lagos). The recorded score is 3–1.

      On the 1X2 market the shortest price is Tondela at 2.1. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, that outcome carries about 44.7% of the implied chance, with the other two outcomes sharing the rest. A short price means the market rates that side more likely. It is not a certainty, and the margin means the three raw probabilities add up to more than 100% before they are scaled.

      The 2.5-goal line is priced shorter on Over 2.5 (1.85, about 51.3% after the margin). Both teams to score is shorter on Yes at 1.7.

      Season points-per-game rates were not stored on this fixture yet. The odds chart still shows how the 1X2, goals, and both-teams markets are priced.

      Arouca vs Tondela FAQs

      4 questions

      What time is Arouca vs Tondela?

      Kickoff is 18:00 on 16 May 2026, shown in Africa/Lagos.

      Which outcome is shortest on Arouca vs Tondela?

      Tondela is the shortest 1X2 price at 2.1. The margin-adjusted share is about 44.7%.

      What are the over and under 2.5 prices?

      Over 2.5 is 1.85 and under 2.5 is 1.95.

      Do both teams score on this match?

      Both teams to score is priced at 1.7. That is a market price, not a forecast that both sides will score.